Mary Tyree

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

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Daniel R. Cayan

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

David W. Pierce

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Michael D. Dettinger

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Edwin P. Maurer

Santa Clara University

T. P. Barnett

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Tapash Das

Kazi Nazrul University

Nicholas E. Graham

Jamaica Library Service

Norman L. Miller

University of California, Berkeley

Katharine Hayhoe

Texas Tech University

P. D. Bromirski

University of California, San Diego

Cooperative Institutions

University of California, San Diego

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

United States Geological Survey

University of California, Davis

University of California, Berkeley

University of California System

University of Washington

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Max Planck Society

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Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

PLoS ONE (2013)

Jane C. Burns Lauren Herzog Olivia Fabri Adriana H. Tremoulet Xavier Rodó

Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics.

Seasonality

10.1371/journal.pone.0074529

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Abstract 4: Analysis of West Coast Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Kawasaki Disease “Dry Spells”

Circulation (2015)

Jane C. Burns Mary Tyree Erika Berry Xavier Rodó Daniel R. Cayan

Background: Tropospheric winds from northeastern China have been linked to fluctuations in Kawasaki disease (KD) cases in Japan. These winds may carry aerosols that trigger KD in genetically susceptible children. We investigated whether reduced numbers of KD cases were linked to large scale circulation patterns affecting the U.S. West Coast. Methods: KD cases with either date of onset of fever or date of hospitalization (PHIS, Pediatric Health Information System) were obtained from 5 sites from Seattle to San Diego from 1995-2014. Six days were subtracted from date of hospitalization to approximate date of onset. For each site, periods from December-March were identified for which there were no KD cases for an interval of ≥10 days, called “KD dry spells”. Daily NCEP-NCAR atmospheric Reanalysis 700hPa height anomalies were used to represent the atmospheric circulation. Results: From 27-48 dry spells were defined for each site. Composites of atmospheric circulation from Day -20 to Day +10 relative to first day of a dry spell were created for each study site. The atmospheric circulation preceding the KD dry spell featured a higher than normal pressure center (results in weakened onshore flow) either offshore over the North Pacific or directly over the site. The circulation anomalies were statistically significant, and unlikely to have occurred by chance. The dry spell pattern intensified and persisted over several days. The strongest anomalous atmospheric circulation (and associated blocked wind flow) occurred between Day -6 to -1 relative to the start of the dry spell. A similar pattern was shared by 4 of the 5 sites. One site featured strong high pressure anomalies > 6 days before the KD dry spells, but only a weak anomaly in the Day -6 to-1 interval preceding the dry spell. Conclusion: This analysis reinforces results from previous studies of KD case fluctuations in Japan wherein anomalous KD activity was associated with particular wind flow patterns. The circulation patterns associated with the West Coast KD “dry spells” suggest that reduced wind flow from the North Pacific results in reduced KD occurrences. These results support the hypothesis that a KD agent is transported by winds, possibly from a shared source region with transport of the agent across the Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation

10.1161/circ.131.suppl_2.4

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CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND SEA LEVEL RISE ESTIMATES FOR THE CALIFORNIA 2008 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT

Daniel R. Cayan Mary Tyree Michael D. Dettinger Hugo G. Hidalgo Tapash Das

Cayan, D., Tyree, M., Dettinger, M., Hidalgo, H., Das, T., Maurer, E., Bromirski, P., Graham, N., and Flick, R., 2009, Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for California 2009 Climate Change Scenarios Assessment: California Energy Commission Report CEC-500-2009-014-D, 50 p. (on-line report in pdf format, 1851 KB)

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Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2010)

Daniel R. Cayan Tapash Das David W. Pierce T. P. Barnett Mary Tyree

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, particularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and persist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were remarkably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Dryness

Snowpack

10.1073/pnas.0912391107

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Climate change scenarios for the California region

Climatic Change (2008)

Daniel R. Cayan Edwin P. Maurer Michael D. Dettinger Mary Tyree Katharine Hayhoe

Climate simulation

10.1007/s10584-007-9377-6

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CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CALIFORNIA LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS

Sam F. Iacobellis Joel R. Norris Mary Tyree Rothenberg Daniel

xi 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Data Sources 2 2.1. Radiosonde Measurements 2 2.2. Surface Temperature Measurements 4 2.3. Large‐Scale and Regional Model Data 6 3.0 Inversion Characteristics and Measures 6 3.1. Frequency of Strong and Weak Inversions 8 3.2. Persistence of Strong and Weak Inversions 8 4.0 Results 9 4.1. Inversion Climatology 9 4.1.1. Relationship Between DTINV and Dθ850 12 4.1.2. How Representative are the Oakland and San Diego Radiosondes of the Wider Air Basins? 14 4.2. Large‐Scale Circulation Patterns Associated with Strong and Weak Inversions ...17 4.2.1. Physical Mechanisms and Inversion Characteristics 22 4.3. Impact of Local Sea Surface Temperature on Inversion Measures 25 4.4. Temporal Variations of Inversion Measures 26 4.4.1. Time Series of Inversion Strength and Inversion Depth 26 4.4.2. Time Series of Strong and Weak Inversion Frequency 37 4.4.3. Persistence of Strong and Weak Inversions 39 5.0 Summary and Conclusions 40 6.0 References 44 7.0 Glossary 46

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Future Dry Spells in the Southwest US Aggravated by Climate Warming (Invited)

AGUFM (2010)

Daniel R. Cayan Tanmoy Das David W. Pierce T. P. Barnett Mary Tyree

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The Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality–Related Meteorological Conditions in California. Part I: Present Time Simulation Analysis

Journal of Climate (2011)

Zhan Zhao Shu‐Hua Chen Michael J. Kleeman Mary Tyree Daniel R. Cayan

Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change on meteorology and air quality conditions in California by dynamically downscaling Parallel Climate Model (PCM) data to high resolution (4 km) using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. This paper evaluates the present years’ (2000–06) downscaling results driven by either PCM or National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) reanalysis data. The analyses focused on the air quality–related meteorological variables, such as planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, and wind. The differences of the climatology from the two sets of downscaling simulations and the driving global datasets were compared, which illustrated that most of the biases of the downscaling results were inherited from the driving global climate model (GCM). The downscaling process added mesoscale features but also introduced extra biases into the driving global data. The main source of bias in the PCM data is an imprecise prediction of the location and strength of the Pacific subtropical high (PSH). The analysis implied that using simulation results driven by PCM data as the input for air quality models will likely underestimate air pollution problems in California. Regional-averaged statistics of the downscaling results were estimated for two highly polluted areas, the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), by comparing to observations. The simulations driven by GFS data overestimated surface temperature and wind speed for most of the year, indicating that WRF has systematic errors in these two regions. The simulation matched the observations better during summer than winter in terms of bias. WRF has difficulty reproducing weak surface wind, which normally happens during stagnation events in these two regions. The shallow summer PBLH in the Central Valley is caused by the dominance of high pressure systems over the valley and the strong valley wind during summer. The change of meteorology and air quality in California due to climate change will be explored in Part II of this study, which compares the future (2047–53) and present (2000–06) simulation results driven by PCM data and is presented in a separate paper.

Model output statistics

MM5

10.1175/2011jcli3849.1

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Impact of climate variation on mosquito abundance in California

Journal of Vector Ecology (2008)

William K. Reisen Daniel R. Cayan Mary Tyree Christopher M. Barker Bruce F. Eldridge

Temporal variation in the abundance of the encephalitis virus vector mosquito, Culex tarsalis Coquillet, was linked significantly with coincident and antecedent measures of regional climate, including temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomaly. Although variable among traps, historical records that spanned two to five decades revealed climate influences on spring and summer mosquito abundance as early as the previous fall through early summer. Correlations between winter and spring precipitation and snow pack and spring Cx. tarsalis abundance were stronger than correlations with summer abundance. Spring abundance was also correlated positively with winter and spring temperature, whereas summer abundance correlated negatively with spring temperature and not significantly with summer temperature. Correlations with antecedent climate provide the opportunity to forecast vector abundance and herefore encephalitis virus risk, a capability useful in intervention decision support systems at local and state levels.

Anomaly (physics)

Seasonality

10.3376/1081-1710(2008)33[89:iocvom]2.0.co;2

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Citations (88)

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Climate Dynamics (2012)

David W. Pierce Tapash Das Daniel R. Cayan Edwin P. Maurer Norman L. Miller

10.1007/s00382-012-1337-9

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Citations (163)