Abstract Analysis of hydro‐climatological time series and spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables has become critical in the context of climate change, especially in Southern African countries where rain‐fed agriculture is predominant. In this work, we compared modern unsupervised time series and segmentation approaches and commonly used time series models to analyse rainfall regime changes in the coastal, sub‐humid and semi‐arid regions of Southern Africa. Rainfall regimes change modelling and prediction inform farming strategies especially when choosing measures for mixed crop–livestock farming systems, as farmers can decide to do rainwater harvesting and moisture conservation or supplementary irrigation if water resources are available. The main goal of this study was to predict/identify rainfall cluster trends over time using regression with hidden logistic process (RHLP) or hidden Markov model regression (HMMR) supplemented by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Facebook Prophet models. Historical time series rainfall data was sourced from meteorological services departments for selected site over an average period of 55 years. Commonly used approaches forecasted an upward rainfall trend in the coastal and sub‐humid regions and a declining trend in semi‐arid areas with high variability between and within seasons. For all sites, Ljung‐Box Test Statistics suggested the existence of autocorrelation in rainfall time series data. Prediction capabilities were investigated using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) which indicated not much difference between ARIMA and Facebook Prophet models. RHLP and HMMR offered a unique clustering and segmentation approach examining between and within‐season rainfall variability. A maximum of 20 unique rainfall clusters with similar trend characteristics were determined as going beyond this brought non‐significant difference to regime changes. A clear trend was exhibited from 1980 going backwards as compared to recent years signifying how unpredictable is rainfall in Southern Africa. The unsupervised approaches predicted a clear cluster trend in coastal than in sub‐humid and semi‐arid and the performance was assessed using Akaike information criteria and log‐likelihood which showed improvement in prediction power as the number of segmentation clusters approaches 20.
Rainfall is a major driver of food production in rainfed smallholder farming systems. This study was conducted to assess linear trends in (i) different daily rainfall amounts (<5, 5–10, 11–20, 21–40 and >40 mm∙day-1), and (ii) monthly and seasonal rainfall amounts. Drought was determined using the rainfall variability index. Daily rainfall data were derived from 18 meteorological stations in southern Africa. Daily rainfall was dominated by <5 mm∙day-1 followed by 5–10 mm∙day-1. Three locations experienced increasing linear trends of <5 mm∙day-1 amounts and two others in sub-humid region had increases in the >40 mm day-1 category. Semi-arid location experienced increasing trends in <5 and 5–10 mm∙day-1 events. A significant linear trend in seasonal rainfall occurred at two locations with decreasing rainfall (1.24 and 3 mm∙season-1). A 3 mm∙season-1 decrease in seasonal rainfall was experienced under semi-arid conditions. There were no apparent linear trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall at 15 of the 18 locations studied. Drought frequencies varied with location and were 50% or higher during the November–March growing season. Rainfall trends were location and agro-ecology specific, but most of the locations studied did not experience significant changes between the 1900s and 2000s.
Soil water availability is one of the major constraints limiting crop productivity under semi-arid conditions in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop models are tools that can be used to explain and predict the effect of improved technologies on runoff and soil water availability, and their impact on crop productivity. The study hypothesized that minimum tillage treatments (planting basins and ripper) retain more rainwater and reduce runoff generation compared to conventional tillage treatments in maize-based cropping systems. Runoff plots were established on-farm and surface runoff was collected after each daily rainfall event. Surface water storage and curve number for each conventional and minimum tillage treatment were derived from the runoff and rainfall amounts measured over two growing seasons. Daily rainfall events of 9–76 mm generated runoff in both conventional and minimum tillage treatments. Planting basins retained more rainwater (12–19%) and reduced runoff generation (40–51%) than the conventional and ripper tillage treatments. Runoff generation in the tillage treatments varied with soil texture. Conventional and double ploughing treatments recorded more runoff (11–12%) in loamy sands than in sandy soil. Surface water storage and curve numbers from tillage treatments were consistent with runoff results and with conventional treatments, having higher curve numbers than minimum tillage practices. Conventional and ripper tillage practices have similar runoff potential as demonstrated by their curve numbers generated in this study. Curve numbers of 75–76 for conventional and 72–74 for minimum tillage systems are practical under light-textured soil and a land slope of <2% when conventional and minimum tillage practices are implemented.
Abstract The merits of three climate smart agriculture (CSA) technologies implemented by farmers were assessed in Machinga district of Malawi with respect to their soil quality and maize yield effects. Data were collected from farms implementing the three CSA technologies, namely conservation agriculture (CA), maize–pigeonpea (Maize‐PP) intercrops and a local organic and inorganic soil amendment known as Mbeya fertilization (Mbeya‐fert), from 2018 to 2019. With respect to resilience and adaptation, particulate organic matter, soil organic carbon (SOC), N, P, K, Ca and Mg all significantly improved while bulk densities were lowered under the three CSA systems. Higher annual biomass inputs and improved water infiltration from the Maize‐PP intercrops were observed. With respect to productivity, CA and Mbeya‐fert improved maize yields by 51 and 19%, respectively, compared to conventional farmer practices. With regard to climate change mitigation, increases in measured SOC in the top 20 cm depth compared to the conventional farmer practices amounted to 6.5, 12 and 10.5 t C ha −1 for CA, Mbeya‐fert, and Maize‐PP intercrops, respectively, over a period of 2–6 years. This suggests higher potential for carbon sequestration from CSA technologies. Furthermore, use of drought tolerant varieties, timely weeding and optimum plant populations, increased productivity. Improved gross margins from CSA practices were also apparent. Thus, employing these CSA technologies could enable farmers to be more resilient, productive and adapt better to climate change shocks leading to improved food security and livelihoods.
Abstract Mechanisation is back among top development policy priorities for transforming African smallholder agriculture. Yet previous and ongoing efforts ubiquitously suffer from lack of scientific information on end‐user effective demand for different types of mechanical innovations to inform public investment or business development programmes. We assess smallholder farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for two‐wheel tractor (2WT)‐based ripping, direct seeding and transportation using a random sample of 2800 smallholder households in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Applying the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak Mechanism (BDM) experimental auctions, we find that at least 50% of sample households in Zambia and Zimbabwe were willing to pay more than the prevailing market prices for ripping. In nominal terms, sample households in Zimbabwe were willing to pay more than those in Zambia for the different services. Empirical results suggest that wealth is the strongest driver of WTP for tillage and seeding 2WT services while labour availability and using animal draft power reduce it. These findings imply a need to (i) raise awareness and create demand for 2WT‐based services in an inclusive business manner that does not create perverse incentives and (ii) better target mechanisation to operations with comparative advantage, using approaches that bundle 2WT‐based and other mechanisation services with asset‐agnostic credit schemes or other interventions meant to overcome asset‐mediated barriers.
Summary Conservation agriculture (CA), as a key component of sustainable intensification, has been widely promoted across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to address low crop productivity. However, the focus has mainly been on improving cereal grain yields, with less focus to its impact on nutritional outcomes. This study sought to assess the productivity potential of CA crop diversification systems and associated crop establishment techniques in terms of grain, protein, and energy yields. An on-station trial was implemented in Malawi for four cropping seasons (2014/15 to 2017/18). Four crop establishment techniques (ridge and furrow, jab planter, dibble sticks, and CA basins) were tested, while cropping systems included conventional cropping system (Conv), CA sole cropping (CaSole), CA intercropping (CA-intercropping), and CA rotations (CA-rotation). In 2014/15 and 2015/16 cropping seasons, characterised by medium and low rainfall, respectively, planting basins and ridge-furrow systems produced higher maize yields compared to jab planter and dibble stick systems. In 2015/16, big and small basins yielded 5061 and 3969 kg ha –1 , while jab planter and dibble stick yielded 3476 and 3213 kg ha –1 . When there was high and persistent rainfall (2016/17 and 2017/18), direct seeding (jab planter and dibble stick) outperformed basins and ridge-furrow systems. Therefore, the choice of planting basin sizes and whether or not to use dibble stick and jab planter needs to be guided by location or site-specific seasonal forecasts for best results. Grain yield in maize-legume rotation systems consistently outperformed other systems, with maize-groundnut rotations surpassing maize-cowpea intercrops by 987–2700 kg ha –1 over four cropping seasons. In intercropping systems, maize-pigeon pea outperformed maize-cowpea by 4–45% during the same period, while maize-cowpea rotation consistently out yielded maize-cowpea intercropping. Intercropping systems, however, provided substantial protein benefits, with maize-pigeon yielding +9.5% (2015/2016), +29.1% (2016/2017) over CA sole, and +2.2% (2017/2018) over cowpea intercropping. Sole systems (conventional and CA sole) yielded the highest caloric energy, while maize-cowpea rotation consistently reduced energy yield by 35% to 54% compared to the highest-yielding systems. Overall intercropping systems can outperform rotation systems in nutritional security but when focus is on maize grain yield alone, intercropping may reduce maize yield when compared to both cereal sole and maize-legume rotation systems.
Summary Smallholders in Southern Africa continue to grapple with low maize productivity despite this being the staple food crop. This study sought to analyze and isolate the relative contribution of agronomic practices to maize yields obtained by smallholders in Malawi and Mozambique using data generated from on-farm trials testing the performance of conservation agriculture cropping systems. The trials were implemented in two communities, namely Kasungu district in Malawi and Sussundenga district in Mozambique, and ran for seven consecutive growing seasons starting in 2010–2011. Maize yield was measured annually in the on-farm trials, which included a ‘control treatment’ representing an improved farm practice, and in neighboring fields managed by the same farmers on their own, hence representing a ‘true farm practice’. Results indicated that maize yield increased linearly with increasing plant population at harvest at both sites. On average, an increase in plant population at harvest by 1000 plants ha –1 resulted in an increase in maize yield of 90 and 63 kg ha –1 at Kasungu and Sussundenga, respectively. The greatest maize yields were obtained when plant population at harvest exceeded 40 000 plants ha –1 . Yet, the plant population at harvest was below the generally recommended optimum for most of the cropping systems studied and in most growing seasons. Furthermore, the use of agronomic practices alone without conservation agriculture (i.e., improved varieties, fertilizer management, and timely weed control) resulted in maize yield gains of as much as 54% and 43% relative to the ‘true farm practice’ at Kasungu and Sussundenga, respectively. Overall, the proportion of these yield increases relative to the ‘true farm practice’ accounted for by agronomic practices amounted to 53–70% and 57–85% at Kasungu and Sussundenga for the highest to the lowest-yielding cropping system. Although conservation agriculture significantly improved maize yield at both sites, such increases were smaller in magnitude compared to the yield gains derived from improved agronomic practices. The study suggests that considerable strides toward narrowing maize yield gaps in Southern Africa can be achieved through improvement of current crop management practices, let alone adhering to the conservation agriculture principles of minimum tillage, residue retention, and crop diversification.
Rampant soil degradation associated with accelerated soil erosion on the continent of Africa is estimated to contribute to crop yield reductions of about 16%, let alone the current climate change challenges. This study sought to evaluate the soil erosion smartness of conservation agriculture based sustainable intensification technologies implemented on farmers’ fields in Malawi and Mozambique over a six-year period since 2010. Annual soil loss estimates by cropping system were made using the Soil Loss Estimation Model for Southern Africa (SLEMSA) on 48 farms. Each of the farms had implemented field experiments with one replicate per farm testing yield and resilience merits of three conservation agriculture (CA) systems relative to the commonly practiced conventional till. CA systems included mono-cropped continuous maize ( CA-sole ), maize rotated annually with a legume ( CA-rotations ) and maize intercropped with a legume ( CA-intercrops ). Data inputs on each farm included slope, soil type, seasonal rainfall and crop management data for each cropping system including measured yield for each season.Over the six seasons, mean soil losses amounted to 10.3, 2.0, 1.4 and 0.6 t ha -1 yr -1 for Conventional till, CA-sole, CA rotations and CA-intercrops, respectively. CA systems thus effectively reduced sheet erosion induced soil losses to below tolerable levels of 5 t ha -1 yr -1 . Conventional till systems were the most susceptible of the tested cropping systems while the CA intercrops portrayed the best resilience characteristics in terms of curbing sheet erosion. Increases in soil losses with increasing annual rainfall were characteristic across all but most dramatic in conventional till systems where soil losses exceeded the tolerable limit as soon as annual rainfall exceeded 800 mm and averaged at 2 t ha -1 for every 100 mm increase in annual rainfall. Yet under CA intercrops, soil losses remained below 5 t ha -1 even when rainfall amounts exceeded 1200 mm. Furthermore, conventional till systems were more susceptible to excessive soil losses when slopes exceeded 5%, thereby emphasizing the need for more caution in taking erosion control measures for conventional till systems implemented on sloppy terrain. Soil losses were also highly dependent on soil cover. The availability of dead crop residue mulches and live canopy cover from the crop enabled lower soil losses from the CA systems and in particular, from the CA intercrops which provided the highest soil cover of all systems. High yielding crops also enabled higher canopy cover and subsequently higher soil cover. Thus in the conventional till system low yielding crops, (< 1 500 kg ha -1 ) as often experienced on smallholder farms, were also highly susceptible to excessive sheet erosion soil losses thereby suggesting low yielding crops not only directly threaten human food security but also the sustainability of the soil. CA systems, especially those involving intercrops, were therefore found to be erosion smart and were rather insensitive to slope, seasonal rainfall amount and crop yield.