Maria Paniw

Estación Biológica de Doñana

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Trends

Author Order

Document Type

Co-Authors

AÖ

Arpat Özgül

University of Zurich

Fernando Ojeda

Universidad de Cádiz

Roberto Salguero‐Gómez

University of Oxford

Dylan Z. Childs

University of Sheffield

Daniel T. Blumstein

University of California, Los Angeles

Julien G. A. Martin

University of Ottawa

Tim Clutton‐Brock

University of Cambridge

Eva Conquet

University of Zurich

Susana Gómez‐González

Center for Climate and Resilience Research

C. Ruth Archer

Albert Einstein College of Medicine

Cooperative Institutions

Ecological Society of America

209

John Wiley & Sons (United States)

Universidad de Cádiz

Estación Biológica de Doñana

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

Sierra Nevada Corporation (United States)

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

University of Zurich

University of Oxford

United States Geological Survey

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Field

The road to success and the fences to be crossed: considering multiple infrastructure in landscape connectivity modelling

Wildlife Biology (2023)

Isla Botting Fernando Ascensão Laetitia M. Navarro Maria Paniw Zulima Tablado

Linear infrastructure represent a barrier to movement for many species, reducing the connectivity of the landscapes in which they reside. Of all linear infrastructure, roads and fences are two of the most ubiquitous, and are understood to reduce landscape connectivity for wildlife. However, what is often neglected consideration is a holistic approach of modelling the effects of multiple types of linear infrastructure simultaneously. Few studies have examined this, typically assessing the impacts of a singular kind of infrastructure on landscape connectivity. Therefore, the aim of this study is to address the relative importance of considering multiple kinds of linear infrastructure in landscape connectivity modelling. We utilised presence data of red deer Cervus elaphus and wild boar Sus scrofa in Doñana Biosphere Reserve (Spain) to generate a sequential approach of scenarios of landscape connectivity; firstly only with environmental variables, secondly with roads as the sole infrastructure, thirdly with the addition of fences, and finally with the further addition of fences and wildlife road‐crossing structures. We found that the connectivity of the landscape was greatly affected by the addition of fences and wildlife road‐crossing structures in both species, with fences in particular causing considerable alterations to estimated movement pathways. Our finding impresses a need to consider multiple different types of linear infrastructure when modelling landscape connectivity to enable a more realistic view of wildlife movement and inform mitigation and conservation measures more accurately.

Landscape connectivity

10.1002/wlb3.01187

Cite

Citations (0)

Heat shock and plant leachates regulate seed germination of the endangered carnivorous plant <i>Drosophyllum lusitanicum</i>

Web Ecology (2018)

Susana Gómez‐González Maria Paniw Kamila Antunes Fernando Ojeda

Abstract. In fire-prone ecosystems, many plant species have specialized mechanisms of seed dormancy that ensure a successful recruitment after fire. A well-documented mechanism is the germination stimulated by fire-related cues, such as heat shock and smoke. However, less is known about the role of inhibitory germination signals (e.g. allelopathy) in regulating post-fire recruitment. Plant leachates derived from the unburned vegetation can enforce dormancy by means of allelopathic compounds, acting as a signal of unfavourable (highly competitive) niche for germination in pyrophyte species. Here, we assessed the separate effects of heat shock and plant leachates on seed germination of Drosophyllum lusitanicum, an endangered carnivorous plant endemic to Mediterranean fire-prone heathlands. We performed a germination experiment in which seeds were subjected to three treatments: (1) 5 min at 100 ∘C, (2) watering with plant leachate, and (3) control. Germination rate and seed viability was determined after 63 days. Heat shock stimulated seed germination in D. lusitanicum while plant leachates had inhibitory germination effects without reducing seed viability. Thus, both positive and negative signals could be involved in its successful post-fire recruitment. Fire would break seed dormancy and stimulate seed germination of D. lusitanicum through high temperatures, but also by eliminating allelochemical compounds from the soil. These results help to understand the population dynamics patterns found for D. lusitanicum in natural populations, and highlight the role of fire in the ecology and conservation of this endangered species. Seed dormancy imposed by plant-derived leachates as an adaptive mechanism should be considered more in fire ecology theory.

10.5194/we-18-7-2018

Cite

Citations (10)

Climate change amplifies extinction risk of a subshrub in anthropogenic landscapes

Eva Conquet Arpat Özgül Susana Gómez‐González Fernando Ojeda Maria Paniw

In most ecosystems, the increasingly strong effects of climate change on biodiversity co-occur with other anthropogenic pressures, most importantly land-use change. However, many long-term studies of population dynamics focus on populations monitored in protected areas, and our understanding of how climate change will affect population persistence under anthropogenic land use is still limited. To fill this knowledge gap, we assessed the consequences of co-occurring land-use and climate change on population dynamics of a fire-adapted Mediterranean carnivorous subshrub, the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum). We used seven years of individual data on 4,753 plants monitored in three natural heathland sites that experience primarily fire as a main disturbance, and five anthropogenic sites, where fires have been replaced by persistent disturbances from browsing or mechanical vegetation removal as a consequence of land-use change. All sites are projected to experience increasingly hotter summers and drier falls and winters. We used generalised additive models to model non-linear responses of survival, growth, and reproduction to rainfall, temperature, size, density, and time since fire in anthropogenic and natural dewy-pine populations. We then projected population dynamics under climate-change scenarios using an individual-based model. Our findings reveal that vital rates respond differently to climate change in anthropogenic compared to natural habitats. While extinction risks do not change under climate change in natural habitats, future higher summer temperatures decrease survival and lead to population declines and higher extinction probabilities in anthropogenic habitats. Our results highlight the possible dramatic effects of climate change on populations largely confined to chronically disturbed, anthropogenic habitats and provide a foundation for devising relevant management strategies aiming towards the protection of species in human-disturbed habitats of the Mediterranean habitat. Overall, our findings emphasise the need for more long-term studies in managed landscapes.

Extinction (optical mineralogy)

10.32942/x24g93

Cite

Citations (0)

Short-lived plants have stronger demographic responses to climate

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2020)

Aldo Compagnoni Sam Levin Dylan Z. Childs W. Stanley Harpole Maria Paniw

Abstract To mitigate and adapt to climate change, there is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data, combined with our understanding of plant physiology and life history theory provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesized time series of structured population models from 165 populations from 62 plants around the globe to link plant population growth rates to precipitation and temperature drivers. We expected: (1) more pronounced demographic responses to precipitation than temperature, especially in arid biomes; (2) a higher climate sensitivity in short-lived rather than long-lived species; and (3) a stronger response to climate by species that reproduce more frequently. We found that precipitation anomalies have a nearly three-fold larger effect on λ than temperature. Precipitation has substantially more pronounced effects in more arid sites, but large noise makes this relationship non-significant. Species with shorter generation time have much stronger absolute responses to climate anomalies, while the degree of iteroparity does not correlate with population responses to climate. We conclude that key species-level traits can predict plant population responses to climate, and discuss the relevance of this generalization for conservation planning and evolutionary theory.

Biome

10.1101/2020.06.18.160135

Cite

Citations (3)

Output of IBM simulations of giraffe populaiton from Tarangire

Figshare (2023)

Maria Paniw Monica L. Bond

These data files are outputs from IBM simulations of:
Bond M, Lee DE, Paniw M. Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change
The metadata is described in https://github.com/MariaPaniw/Masai_giraffe_ibm

IBM

10.6084/m9.figshare.23587563

Cite

Citations (0)

Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (2023)

Maria Paniw David García‐Callejas Francisco Lloret Ronald D. Bassar Joseph Travis

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting—but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.

10.1098/rspb.2022.1494

Cite

Citations (9)

Beyond demographic buffering: Context dependence in demographic strategies across animals

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (2021)

Omar Lenzi Arpat Özgül Roberto Salguero‐Gómez Maria Paniw

Abstract Temporal variation in vital rates ( e.g ., survival, reproduction) can decrease the long-term mean performance of a population. Species are therefore expected to evolve demographic strategies that counteract the negative effects of vital rate variation on the population growth rate. One key strategy, demographic buffering, is reflected in a low temporal variation in vital rates critical to population dynamics. However, comparative studies in plants have found little evidence for demographic buffering, and little is known about the prevalence of buffering in animal populations. Here, we used vital rate estimates from 31 natural populations of 29 animal species to assess the prevalence of demographic buffering. We modeled the degree of demographic buffering using a standard measure of correlation between the standard deviation of vital rates and the sensitivity of the population growth rate to changes in such vital rates across populations. We also accounted for the effects of life-history traits, i.e ., age at first reproduction and spread of reproduction across the life cycle, on these correlation measures. We found no strong or consistent evidence of demographic buffering across the study populations. Instead, key vital rates could vary substantially depending on the specific environmental context populations experience. We suggest that it is time to look beyond concepts of demographic buffering when studying natural populations towards a stronger focus on the environmental context-dependence of vital-rate variation.

Vital rates

Life History Theory

Variation (astronomy)

10.1101/2021.06.08.447594

Cite

Citations (1)

Life history responses of meerkats to seasonal changes in extreme environments

Science (2019)

Maria Paniw Nino Maag Gabriele Cozzi Tim Clutton‐Brock Arpat Özgül

Species in extreme habitats increasingly face changes in seasonal climate, but the demographic mechanisms through which these changes affect population persistence remain unknown. We investigated how changes in seasonal rainfall and temperature influence vital rates and viability of an arid environment specialist, the Kalahari meerkat, through effects on body mass. We show that climate change-induced reduction in adult mass in the prebreeding season would decrease fecundity during the breeding season and increase extinction risk, particularly at low population densities. In contrast, a warmer nonbreeding season resulting in increased mass and survival would buffer negative effects of reduced rainfall during the breeding season, ensuring persistence. Because most ecosystems undergo seasonal climate variations, a full understanding of species vulnerability to global change relies on linking seasonal trait and population dynamics.

Extinction (optical mineralogy)

10.1126/science.aau5905

Cite

Citations (96)

Accounting for uncertainty in dormant life stages in stochastic demographic models

Oikos (2016)

Maria Paniw Pedro F. Quintana‐Ascencio Fernando Ojeda Roberto Salguero‐Gómez

Dormant life stages are often critical for population viability in stochastic environments, but accurate field data characterizing them are difficult to collect. Such limitations may translate into uncertainties in demographic parameters describing these stages, which then may propagate errors in the examination of population‐level responses to environmental variation. Expanding on current methods, we 1) apply data‐driven approaches to estimate parameter uncertainty in vital rates of dormant life stages and 2) test whether such estimates provide more robust inferences about population dynamics. We built integral projection models (IPMs) for a fire‐adapted, carnivorous plant species using a Bayesian framework to estimate uncertainty in parameters of three vital rates of dormant seeds – seed‐bank ingression, stasis and egression. We used stochastic population projections and elasticity analyses to quantify the relative sensitivity of the stochastic population growth rate (log λ s ) to changes in these vital rates at different fire return intervals. We then ran stochastic projections of log λ s for 1000 posterior samples of the three seed‐bank vital rates and assessed how strongly their parameter uncertainty propagated into uncertainty in estimates of log λ s and the probability of quasi‐extinction, P q(t) . Elasticity analyses indicated that changes in seed‐bank stasis and egression had large effects on log λ s across fire return intervals. In turn, uncertainty in the estimates of these two vital rates explained > 50% of the variation in log λ s estimates at several fire‐return intervals. Inferences about population viability became less certain as the time between fires widened, with estimates of P q ( t ) potentially > 20% higher when considering parameter uncertainty. Our results suggest that, for species with dormant stages, where data is often limited, failing to account for parameter uncertainty in population models may result in incorrect interpretations of population viability.

Vital rates

Population model

Population viability analysis

10.1111/oik.03696

Cite

Citations (51)

Author response for "Demographic traits improve predictions of spatiotemporal changes in community resilience to drought"

Maria Paniw Enrique G. de la Riva Francisco Lloret

Resilience

Drought stress

10.1111/1365-2745.13597/v2/response1

Cite

Citations (0)