In this paper, we introduce a new variable called Human Assets and study its effects on economic growth both theoretically and empirically. The first part builds an endogenous growth model which demonstrates that Human Assets increase economic growth. The second part employs the new Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Estimator for heterogeneous cross-sectionally dependent dynamic panels to empirically study the impact of Human Assets on economic growth. The results corroborate the theoretical predictions that Human Assets act positively on economic growth. The positive impact of Human Assets on growth is maintained when we use small sample bias corrections and sensitivity to the choice of lag orders. The paper also illustrates, theoretically and empirically, that the magnitude of the effect of Human Assets on growth is huge compared to most other determinants of economic growth. Finally, we discover that human capital does not affect the growth rate once we control for Human Assets.
This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low-Income and Middle-Income countries.
This notebook illustrates how to solve and simulate a Real Business Cycle (RBC) model using Mathematica. It starts from finding the first order conditions, then derives the steady-state, log-linearizes and solves the RBC model. After solving the model, the notebook first computes the impulse response functions and then simulates the model. It ends by calculating some second moments statistics of the RBC model. When we want to solve a RBC model, soon or later, we will need to use a software. This notebook demonstrates how to do this using Mathematica without having the need to use paper and pencil to derive the equilibrium conditions and log-linearize the model first, and then use a numerical software to perform the simulations. In this notebook, all these steps are done with Mathematica and fully explained in detail.
Adaptation of cropping management strategies is necessary to ensure the sustainability of our agriculture, which is facing threats arising from climate change. A methodology is proposed to find out and compare the most promising adaptation strategies in this context considering both biotic and abiotic stresses. A set of pre-selected strategies were evaluated based on economic, plant health and environmental criteria. A dedicated workflow combining the STICS crop model, epidemiological models and multi-criteria analysis was designed, implemented and tested for a wheat production situation. Flexible by design, this methodology can consider different criteria weights to be used as an exchange support with stakeholders.
This paper investigates the existence or otherwise of Fiscal dominance (non-Ricardian) regime in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) from 1990 through 2017 using a Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) approach. Following Canzoneri, Cumby and Diba (2000), the study made use of public liabilities and primary balance as the main variables of the model. Our findings confirm the existence of fiscal dominance regime in Ghana, Guinea and Sierra Leone, and monetary dominance regime in The Gambia and Nigeria. The main policy recommendations proffered are that fiscal policy should be based on an active reaction function for countries with fiscal dominant regimes in order to allow primary surplus respond to change in debt thereby ensuring credibility and solvency. For those that exhibit Recardian regimes phenomena, they should have robust and effective monetary policy re-enforced by strong and efficient institutions, autonomous and devoid of any fiscal interference and policy accommodation that may lead to inflation bias.
This paper employs panel data instrumental variable regression and threshold effect estimation methods to study the link between real effective exchange rate volatility and total factor productivity growth. The results illustrate that real effective exchange rate volatility negatively affects total factor productivity growth. But this effect is not very high. This outcome is corroborated by estimations using an alternative measurement of real effective exchange rate volatility and on a subsample of developed countries. But for developing countries the negative effect of real effective exchange rate volatility is very large. We also found that real effective exchange rate volatility acts on total factor productivity according to the level of financial development. For very low and very high levels of financial development, real exchange rate volatility has no effect on productivity growth but for moderately financially developed countries, real exchange rate volatility reacts negatively on productivity.
WAMZ countries have accumulated high levels of public debt less than two decades after the massive debt forgiveness effected under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. This has raised sustainability concerns as rising debt levels have the potential to create negative spillover effects and derail the macroeconomic convergence process in the Zone. This study examines the response of WAMZ countries to increases in public debt levels. Utilizing pooled OLS and panel fixed effects (FE) on annual data covering the period 2000 â 2018, the study shows positive response of primary balance to changes in the debt to GDP ratio across WAMZ countries, indicating that public debt were sustainable during the period. Results from the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model indicate significant positive non-linear response of primary balance to increases in the debt ratio below a threshold debt-to-GDP ratio of 90 percent. The study recommends the continuation of fiscal consolidation efforts aimed at enhancing revenue and rationalizing unproductive expenditures in all Member States.
Countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are heterogeneous, characterized by marked differences in production and export structures, divergent levels of inflation rates and fiscal positions. These features suggest that there is a greater tendency for the transmission of asymmetric shocks across member countries in the ECOWAS region. Understanding how well business cycles are synchronised between member countries is extremely important in designing appropriate policy responses to facilitate the launch of the single currency and reduce the cost of joining the proposed ECOWAS monetary union. This study undertakes a time-varying assessment of the degree of synchronisation of business cycles among ECOWAS member countries and analyses the role of bilateral trade, financial integration, and convergence in fiscal and monetary policy in achieving more synchronised business cycles in the region. Using the Hausman-Taylor and Error Components panel two-stage least squares (EC-2SLS) estimation techniques over the period 2001 – 2018, this study finds that well-coordinated policy responses such as the strengthening of trade linkages, convergence in fiscal policy and strong financial linkages would foster more closely synchronised business cycles across the region. Thus, measures to promote the synchronisation of business cycles and ensure the sustainable adoption of a single currency should focus not only on satisfying the macroeconomic convergence criteria, but also enhance trade and financial integration to foster broader policy coordination among countries in the region.
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