Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Culicoides

Ceratopogonidae

Orbivirus

10.1371/journal.pone.0232534

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Citations (11)

Importance of Ecological Factors and Colony Handling for Optimizing Health Status of Apiaries in Mediterranean Ecosystems

PLoS ONE (2016)

Irene Asensio Marina Vicente-Rubiano María Muñoz Eduardo Fernández‐Carrión José Manuel Sánchez‐Vizcaíno

We analyzed six apiaries in several natural environments with a Mediterranean ecosystem in Madrid, central Spain, in order to understand how landscape and management characteristics may influence apiary health and bee production in the long term. We focused on five criteria (habitat quality, landscape heterogeneity, climate, management and health), as well as 30 subcriteria, and we used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to rank them according to relevance. Habitat quality proved to have the highest relevance, followed by beehive management. Within habitat quality, the following subcriteria proved to be most relevant: orographic diversity, elevation range and important plant species located 1.5 km from the apiary. The most important subcriteria under beehive management were honey production, movement of the apiary to a location with a higher altitude and wax renewal. Temperature was the most important subcriterion under climate, while pathogen and Varroa loads were the most significant under health. Two of the six apiaries showed the best values in the AHP analysis and showed annual honey production of 70 and 28 kg/colony. This high productivity was due primarily to high elevation range and high orographic diversity, which favored high habitat quality. In addition, one of these apiaries showed the best value for beehive management, while the other showed the best value for health, reflected in the low pathogen load and low average number of viruses. These results highlight the importance of environmental factors and good sanitary practices to maximize apiary health and honey productivity.

Apiary

10.1371/journal.pone.0164205

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Citations (17)

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

Viruses (2020)

Cecilia Aguilar‐Vega Jaime Bosch Eduardo Fernández‐Carrión Javier Lucientes José Manuel Sánchez‐Vizcaíno

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Culicoides

Basic reproduction number

10.3390/v12101158

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Citations (2)

Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain

Preventive Veterinary Medicine (2016)

Eduardo Fernández‐Carrión Benjamín Ivorra Beatriz Martínez‐López Ángel Ramos José Manuel Sánchez‐Vizcaíno

Culling

Euros

Economic cost

Economic model

Classical swine fever

Economic risk

Economic Evaluation

Disease Control

10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.01.015

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Citations (14)

Risk of Introduction of Infectious Animal Diseases for Europe Based on the Health Situation of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula

Frontiers in Veterinary Science (2019)

Elena Massó Sagüés Eduardo Fernández‐Carrión José Manuel Sánchez‐Vizcaíno

The current growth of human population, the intensification of animal production, climate change or globalization favours an increase in the transmission of infectious diseases. Risk analysis is the tool that allows the identification of the factors involved in the introduction and the spread of infectious diseases. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the risk of entry of animal infectious zoonotic and non-zoonotic diseases from North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula to countries of the European Union. For a diseases introduction risk analysis, it has been developed probabilistic formulation to obtain the probabilities associated with each routes for each of the affected countries. The results show that, among the infectious diseases analysed in this study, avian influenza and Newcastle disease are the ones with a higher risk of entry in the European Union and the wild bird's migration is the route with greater impact. It is confirmed a moderate probability of entry of some vector-borne diseases, bluetongue and epizootic haemorrhagic disease, through wind flow from Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. Due to the absence of live dromedary movement to Europe, the more likely way of entry of the Middle East respiratory syndrome is through the infected people movement from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman.

Peninsula

Epizootic

Emerging infectious disease

10.3389/fvets.2019.00293

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Citations (4)

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

PLoS ONE (2018)

Eduardo Fernández‐Carrión Benjamín Ivorra Ángel Ramos Beatriz Martínez‐López Cecilia Aguilar‐Vega

This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects' survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.

Ceratopogonidae

Culicoides

10.1371/journal.pone.0194573

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Citations (8)