Indian industry uses energy more intensively than is the norm in industrialized countries. While selected modern Indian units often display very high efficiency that approaches the world's best practice levels, the average intensity lags behind
Enforcement of appliance standards and consumer trust in appliance labeling are important foundations of growing a more energy efficient economy. Product certification and verification increase compliance rates which in turn increase both energy savings and consumer trust. This paper will serve two purposes: 1) to review international practices for product certification and verification as they relate to the enforcement of standards and labeling programs in the U.S., E.U., Australia, Japan, Canada, and China; and 2) to make recommendations for China to implement improved certification processes related to their mandatory standards and labeling program such as to increase compliance rates and energy savings potential.
China's 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) sets an ambitious targetfor energy-efficiency improvement: energy intensity of the country sgross domestic product (GDP) should be reduced by 20 percent from 2005 to2010 (NDRC, 2006). This is the first time that a quantitative and bindingtarget has been set for energy efficiency, and signals a major shift inChina's strategic thinking about its long-term economic and energydevelopment. The 20 percent energy intensity target also translates intoan annual reduction of over one billion tons of CO2 by 2010, making theChinese effort one of most significant carbon mitigation effort in theworld today. While it is still too early to tell whether China willachieve this target, this paper attempts to understand the trend inenergy intensity in China and to explore a variety of options towardmeeting the 20 percent target using a detailed endues energymodel.
As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. Over the past few years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced its China End-Use Energy Model which is based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. In addition, this analysis also evaluated China's long-term domestic energy supply in order to gauge the potential challenge China may face in meeting long-term demand for energy. It is a common belief that China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not necessarily be the case because saturation in ownership of appliances, construction of residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and urbanization will peak around 2030 with slowing population growth. The baseline and alternative scenarios also demonstrate that China's 2020 goals can be met and underscore the significant role that policy-driven energy efficiency improvements will play in carbon mitigation along with a decarbonized power supply through greater renewable and non-fossil fuel generation.
Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU-style development path would avoid 430 million tonnes coal-equivalent energy use by 2025. More than 60% of these energy savings would come from reduced activity and production levels. In carbon terms, this would amount to more than a billion-tonne reduction of energy-related carbon emissions compared with the BAU scenario in 2025, though the absolute level of emissions rises in both scenarios. Aside from the energy and carbon savings related to CLU scenario development, this study showed impending saturation effects in commercial construction, urban appliance ownership, and fertilizer application. The implication of these findings is that urbanization will have a direct impact on future energy use and emissions - policies to guide urban growth can play a central role in China's efforts to mitigate emissions growth.
Buildings represent an increasingly important component of China's total energy consumption mix. However, accurately assessing the total volume of energy consumed in buildings is difficult owing to deficiencies in China's statistical collection system and a lack of national surveys. Official statistics suggest that buildings account for about 19% of China's total energy consumption, while others estimate the proportion at 23%, rising to 30% over the next few years. In addition to operational energy, buildings embody the energy used in the in the mining, extraction, harvesting, processing, manufacturing and transport of building materials as well as the energy used in the construction and decommissioning of buildings. This embodied energy, along with a building's operational energy, constitutes the building's life-cycle energy and emissions footprint. This report first provides a review of international studies on commercial building life-cycle energy use from which data are derived to develop an assessment of Chinese commercial building life-cycle energy use, then examines in detail two cases for the development of office building operational energy consumption to 2020. Finally, the energy and emissions implications of the two cases are presented.
As appliance energy efficiency standards and labeling (S&L) programs reach a broader geographic and product scope, a series of sophisticated and complex technical and economic analyses have been adopted by different countries in the world to support and enhance these growing S&L programs. The initial supporting techno-economic and impact analyses for S&L development make up a defined framework and process for setting and developing appropriate appliance efficiency standards and labeling programs. This report reviews in-depth the existing framework for standards setting and label development in the well-established programs of the U.S., Australia and the EU to identify and evaluate major trends in how and why key analyses are undertaken and to understand major similarities and differences between each of the frameworks.
Although China became the world's largest emitter of energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007, China does not publish annual estimates of CO{sub 2} emissions and most published estimates of China's emissions have been done by other international organizations. Undertaken at the request of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, this study examines the feasibility of applying the EIA emissions inventory methodology to estimate China's emissions from published Chinese data. Besides serving as a proof of concept, this study also helps develop a consistent and transparent method for estimating China's CO{sub 2} emissions using an Excel model and identified China-specific data issues and areas for improvement. This study takes a core set of data from the energy balances published in the China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2009 and China Petrochemical Corporation Yearbook 2009 and applies the EIA's eight-step methodology to estimate China's 2008 CO{sub 2} emissions. First, China's primary and secondary fuel types and consumption by end use are determined with slight discrepancies identified between the two data sources and inconsistencies in product categorization with the EIA. Second, energy consumption data are adjusted to eliminate double counting in the four potential areas identified by EIA; consumption data from China's Special Administrative Regions are not included. Physical fuel units are then converted to energy equivalents using China's standard energy measure of coal equivalent (1 kilogram = 29.27 MJ) and IPCC carbon emissions coefficients are used to calculate each fuel's carbon content. Next, carbon sequestration is estimated following EIA conventions for other petroleum products and non-energy use of secondary fuels. Emissions from international bunker fuels are also subtracted under the 'reference' calculation of estimating apparent energy consumption by fuel type and the 'sectoral' calculation of summing emissions across end-use sectors. Adjustments for the China-specific conventions of reporting foreign bunkers and domestic bunkers fueling abroad are made following IPCC definitions of international bunkers and EIA reporting conventions, while the sequestration of carbon in carbon steel is included as an additional adjustment. Under the sectoral approach, fuel consumption of bunkers and other transformation losses as well as gasoline consumption are reallocated to conform to EIA sectoral reporting conventions. To the extent possible, this study relies on official energy data from primary sources. A limited number of secondary sources were consulted to provide insight into the nature of consumption of some products and to guide the analysis of carbon sequestered in steel. Beyond these, however, the study avoided trying to estimate figures where directly unavailable, such as natural gas flaring. As a result, the basic calculations should be repeatable for other years with the core set of data from National Bureau of Statistics and Sinopec (or a similarly authoritative source of oil product data). This study estimates China's total energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions in 2008 to be 6666 Mt CO{sub 2}, including 234.6 Mt of non-fuel CO{sub 2} emissions and 154 Mt of sequestered CO{sub 2}. Bunker fuel emissions in 2008 totaled 15.9 Mt CO{sub 2}, but this figure is underestimated because fuel use by Chinese ship and planes for international transportation and military bunkers are not included. Of emissions related to energy consumption, 82% is from coal consumption, 15% from petroleum and 3% from natural gas. From the sectoral approach, industry had the largest share of China's energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions with 72%, followed by residential at 11%, transport and telecommunications at 8%, and the other four (commerce, agriculture, construction and other public) sectors having a combined share of 9%. Thermal electricity and (purchased) heat (to a lesser degree) are major sources of fuel consumption behind sectoral emissions, responsible for 2533 Mt CO2 and 321 Mt CO{sub 2}, respectively. The 2008 emissions estimated for China in this study falls within the range of other international estimates, and suggests that the EIA methodology can be adopted to estimate China's emissions if the proper adjustments are made. While these results are helpful in understanding China's annual emissions, several key areas of data challenges affect the accuracy of this estimate. Industrial process-based emissions - an important source of emissions given China's industry-intensive economy and size of its cement sector - have not been included in this calculation and could be the focus of further model refinement. The accuracy of the Chinese emissions estimate can be further improved by addressing two unreported international bunker categories and developing China-specific carbon sequestration coefficients for non-fuel use energy products.
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