Table S1. A list of the species per country found in this study. References to previous research of Culicoides fauna in the same countries are made, as well as remarks on the distribution of the species as described in the IIKC. (XLSX 14 kb)
Abstract In this paper we continue the stability analysis of the model for coinfection with density dependent susceptible population introduced in Andersson et al. (Effect of density dependence on coinfection dynamics. arXiv:2008.09987 , 2020). We consider the remaining parameter values left out from Andersson et al. (Effect of density dependence on coinfection dynamics. arXiv:2008.09987 , 2020). We look for coexistence equilibrium points, their stability and dependence on the carrying capacity K . Two sets of parameter value are determined, each giving rise to different scenarios for the equilibrium branch parametrized by K . In both scenarios the branch includes coexistence points implying that both coinfection and single infection of both diseases can exist together in a stable state. There are no simple explicit expression for these equilibrium points and we will require a more delicate analysis of these points with a new bifurcation technique adapted to such epidemic related problems. The first scenario is described by the branch of stable equilibrium points which includes a continuum of coexistence points starting at a bifurcation equilibrium point with zero single infection strain #1 and finishing at another bifurcation point with zero single infection strain #2. In the second scenario the branch also includes a section of coexistence equilibrium points with the same type of starting point but the branch stays inside the positive cone after this. The coexistence equilibrium points are stable at the start of the section. It stays stable as long as the product of K and the rate $${\bar{\gamma }}$$ γ¯ of coinfection resulting from two single infections is small but, after this it can reach a Hopf bifurcation and periodic orbits will appear.
An SIR model with the coinfection of the two infectious agents in a single host population is considered. The model includes the environmental carry capacity in each class of population. A special case of this model is analyzed and several threshold conditions are obtained which describes the establishment of disease in the population. We prove that for small carrying capacity $K$ there exist a globally stable disease free equilibrium point. Furthermore, we establish the continuity of the transition dynamics of the stable equilibrium point, i.e. we prove that (1) for small values of $K$ there exists a unique globally stable equilibrium point, and (b) it moves continuously as $K$ is growing (while its face type may change). This indicate that carrying capacity is the crucial parameter and increase in resources in terms of carrying capacity promotes the risk of infection.
The outbreaks of bluetongue and Schmallenberg disease in Europe have increased efforts to understand the ecology of Culicoides biting midges and their role in pathogen transmission. However, most studies have focused on a specific habitat, region, or country. To facilitate wider comparisons, and to obtain a better understanding of the spread of disease through Europe, the present study focused on monitoring biting midge species diversity in three different habitat types and three countries across Europe. Biting midges were trapped using Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute light traps at a total of 27 locations in Sweden, the Netherlands and Italy, comprising farm, peri-urban and wetland habitats. From July 2014 to June 2015 all locations were sampled monthly, except for during the winter months. Trapped midges were counted and identified morphologically. Indices on species richness, evenness and diversity were calculated. Community compositions were analysed using non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) techniques. A total of 50,085 female midges were trapped during 442 collection nights. More than 88% of these belonged to the Obsoletus group. The highest midge diversity was found in Sweden, while species richness was highest in the Netherlands, and most specimens were trapped in Italy. For habitats within countries, diversity of the trapped midges was lowest for farms in all countries. Differences in biting midge species communities were more distinct across the three countries than the three habitat types. A core midge community could be identified, in which the Obsoletus group was the most abundant. Variations in vector communities across countries imply different patterns of disease spread throughout Europe. How specific species and their associated communities affect disease risk is still unclear. Our results emphasize the importance of midge diversity data at community level, how this differs across large geographic range within Europe, and its implications on assessing risks of midge-borne disease outbreaks.
Globalization has increased the potential for the introduction and spread of novel pathogens over large spatial scales necessitating continental-scale disease models to guide emergency preparedness. Livestock disease spread models, such as those for the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United Kingdom, represent some of the best case studies of large-scale disease spread. However, generalization of these models to explore disease outcomes in other systems, such as the United States's cattle industry, has been hampered by differences in system size and complexity and the absence of suitable livestock movement data. Here, a unique database of US cattle shipments allows estimation of synthetic movement networks that inform a near-continental scale disease model of a potential FMD-like (i.e., rapidly spreading) epidemic in US cattle. The largest epidemics may affect over one-third of the US and 120,000 cattle premises, but cattle movement restrictions from infected counties, as opposed to national movement moratoriums, are found to effectively contain outbreaks. Slow detection or weak compliance may necessitate more severe state-level bans for similar control. Such results highlight the role of large-scale disease models in emergency preparedness, particularly for systems lacking comprehensive movement and outbreak data, and the need to rapidly implement multi-scale contingency plans during a potential US outbreak.
We studied interplay between landscape configuration and two characteristics known to affect population extinction risks: environmental fluctuations and population dynamics. Specifically, we tested ...
Despite the presence of Culex (Cx.) pipiens mosquitoes and circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), WNV outbreaks have so far not occurred in northern Europe. The species Cx. pipiens consists of two morphologically identical biotypes, pipiens and molestus, which can form hybrids. Until now, population dynamic studies of Cx. pipiens have not differentiated between biotypes and hybrids at the European scale, nor have they used comparative surveillance approaches. We therefore aimed to elucidate the relative abundance of Cx. pipiens biotypes and hybrids in three habitat types at different latitudes across Europe, using two different surveillance traps. BG-Sentinel and Mosquito-Magnet Liberty Plus traps were placed in three habitat types (farms, peri-urban, wetlands), in three European countries (Sweden, The Netherlands, Italy). Collected Cx. pipiens mosquitoes were identified to biotype with real-time PCR. Both trap types collected equal ratios of the biotypes and their hybrids. From northern to southern latitudes there was a significant decrease of pipiens and an increase of molestus. Habitat types influenced the relative ratios of biotypes and hybrids, but results were not consistent across latitudes. Our results emphasize the need to differentiate Cx. pipiens to the biotype level, especially for proper future WNV risk assessments for Europe.
In this paper we continue the stability analysis of the model for coinfection with density dependent susceptible population introduced in the 1st part of the paper. We look for coexistence equilibrium points, their stability and dependence on the carrying capacity $K$. Two sets of parameter value are determined, each giving rise to different scenarios for the equilibrium branch parametrized by $K$. In both scenarios the branch includes coexistence points implying that both coinfection and single infection of both diseases can exist together in a stable state. There are no simple explicit expression for these equilibrium points and we will require a more delicate analysis of these points with a new bifurcation technique adapted to such epidemic related problems. The first scenario is described by the branch of stable equilibrium points which includes a section of coexistence points starting at a bifurcation equilibrium point with zero second single infections and finishing at another bifurcation point with zero first single infections. In the second scenario the branch also includes a section of coexistence equilibrium points with the same type of starting point but the branch stays inside the positive cone after this. The coexistence equilibrium points are stable at the start of the section. It stays stable as long as the product of $K$ and the rate $\bar \gamma$ of coinfection resulting from two single infections is small but, after this it can reach a Hopf bifurcation and periodic orbits will appear.
Population growth is governed by many external and internal factors. In order to study their effects on population dynamics, we develop an age-structured time-dependent population model with logistic-type nonlinearity. We prove existence of a unique nonnegative bounded solution. Our main concern is to study asymptotic behavior of a solution in the general case, and especially for a periodic environment. We use the method of lower and upper solutions known in the theory of integral equations to formulate lower and upper boundaries of population density. In the periodic case, we discover a connection between the period of oscillation and its effect on population growth.
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