In order to control or reduce the risk of water transportation, it is necessary to study the evolution trend of marine traffic risk. A new risk simulation model based on Markov Chain-Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC) is proposed for marine traffic risk analysis near land. First, the spatial state transfer model of ship traffic risk in the waters adjacent to land was established. Second, the spatial transfer hypothesis matrix was conducted for ships operating in offshore, coastal and port waters; third, the risk value of traffic waters under stochastic process was obtained by using MCMC method to carry out random sampling. Finally, combined with typical coastal marine traffic data, the risk occurrence law and its changing trend were analyzed in different traffic waters through simulation. Empirical data shows that ship traffic risks are 0.193%, 0.563%, and 0.560% respectively in offshore, coastal and port waters, and the risk is high and unstable in restricted waters. MCMC simulation method can be applied to study the characteristics of traffic risk in waters adjacent to land, which provides a theoretical reference for improving safety and accident prevention in certain marine traffic waters.
This study aims to obtain a critical review of the characteristics and trends in Maritime English (ME) research over the last four decades. This study contributes to a comprehensive analysis of ME based on Web of Science and Google Scholar databases by VOSviewer software. Bibliometric indicators including trends, authors, scholarly journals, references, and keywords were used in it. Results show that ME education and ME communication are the main themes in the ME research field. The International Maritime English Conference (IMEC), International Maritime Lecturers Association (IMLA), and maritime journals affiliated with maritime universities published most of the ME research articles. Most of the productive and influential scholars and academic institutions are concentrated in Europe. Quantitative analysis is the main research method in ME. The study promotes a comprehensive understanding of ME research globally and provides valuable insights into its prospects.
The risk of maritime traffic is an issue to express the uncertain information. In order to assess the risk of traffic environment at port, the theories and methods of unascertained mathematics were introduced. Considering the unascertained characteristics of traffic environment at port, the weight of risk system coefficients was determined and an unascertained quantitative model was established for evaluation of traffic environment on the basis of the information entropy theory. Then, it gets the corresponding rank and evaluation of the maritime risk, with the help of applying this model in 13 sections of two ports of China. Compared with traditional weight obtained method, the results show that the evaluation is reliable, and this unascertained measure is more propitious to resolve the evaluation of traffic risk in different ports by the same evaluation standard solely on the basis of objective data.
Objective:To explore the effect of important people involved in drug treatment methods programs for schizophrenia patients after training.Methods:Will 112 cases of schizophrenia patients were randomly divided into research group and control group,56 patients in each group.Team every patients choose 1 name from the inception of important figure within weekly inform its to court,Both patients and important people for a 8 weeks drug disposition program training,At 6 months,1 year,the patients and important characters of implementation team follow-up intervention.The control group patients with a week during the group team routine medicine knowledge education.Important people in cells,the hospital nurse above by knowledge education,no follow-up education.Using the brief psychiatric rating scale BPRS,Social function defect screening SDSS,watch,Homemade treatment adherence questionnaire.The group,respectively,in the first eight weekends,and training for the first 12 months follow-up evaluation.Two groups of patients curative effect,evaluation of treatment adherence and the recurrence rate.Results:Into the group,two groups of patients medication adherence,BPRS and comparison.SDSS score,there were no statistically significant difference(P0.05).Drug treatment programs for the first eight weeks after training with the first team 12 months follow-up treatment adherence for patients with higher than those in the control group BPRS,scores are lower than those of the control group SDSS,Differences are statistically significant(P0.05).After the first 12 months of follow-up.There were 8 patients relapse in researoh group,the recurrence rate was 14.7%.And 20 cases of control group recurrence,the recurrence rate was 39.2%.Two groups of comparisons difference was statistically significant(P0.01).Conclusion:For important people involved in drug disposition program training can make families know diseases,To mobilize support of family role,guide patients' recover,Thus stable patients with schizophrenia,illness,family harmony,improve medication adherence,reduce recurrence rate,so as to improve the quality of life.
In recent years, ship collision accidents have been widely concerned due to their high frequency of occurrence and serious losses. However, the analysis of the accident cause, especially the human factors, often lacks the corresponding data support. Therefore, this paper introduces the grounded theory (GT) to conduct the text mining of the accident report, aiming at taking accident as a reference to find out the causes of the ship collision accidents, and obtain the structured framework, identify and evaluate key factors through structural and quantitative methods. Secondly, by comparing HFACS-MA and HFACS-COLL, HFACS-COLL is improved and the results are structured to construct a HFACS framework for ship collision accidents. Finally, the statistical analysis method is used to analyze the correlation and accident-causing factors at all levels. The results show that the causal factors in ship collisions can be represented by a top-down, coarse-grained to fine-grained multi-layered HFACS hierarchy and there are correlations between external factors, organizational influences, unsafe supervision, preconditions for unsafe acts, and unsafe acts. External factors are the potential cause of ship collision accidents and the potential inducement of organizational influences. Negative organizational influences will lead to the genesis of unsafe supervision, form the preconditions of unsafe acts, and eventually lead to the occurrence of unsafe acts. To conclude, the HFACS framework of stand-on vessels and give-way vessels in ship collision accidents was obtained by GT text mining respectively. Combined with WBA and statistical analysis methods, the causes of accidents and the correlation between factors were excavated.
In recent years, the effect of Arctic waters strategic access has become prominent, intensifying focus on the development of Arctic sea route. Nevertheless, the relatively harsh Arctic environment and the increase of anomalous weather and climate events will inevitably cause impact and damage to Arctic shipping. Therefore, it is crucial to introduce resilience theory to evaluate risk resistance and recovery level. A method for assessing the resilience level of shipping in Arctic waters under high sea ice concentration disruption along the Northern Sea Route was proposed. The assessment of resilience level was conducted in a comprehensive manner, involving the evaluation of restorability, redundancy and adaptivity, through the analysis of the safety characteristics of shipping in Arctic waters. Firstly, the evaluation indicators, such as reliability, restorability, redundancy and adaptivity, were established through a comprehensive appraisal of literature and expert consultation. And Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structural Model (DEMATEL-ISM) was used to construct the resilience evaluation model in Arctic shipping. Secondly, in order to obtain a quantitative analysis of the level of system resilience under high sea ice concentration disruption, Bayesian Network was implemented. The relevant data was obtained through expert questionnaire surveys. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to improve the level of resilience. The preliminary research shows that the resilience level of Arctic shipping is medium, and the improvement of restorability has a positive effect on improving the resilience level. Improving the resilience level of Arctic shipping safety can effectively reduce the adverse effects of environmental disruptions.
Safety is the eternal theme in shipping industry. Research shows that human error is the main reason of maritime accidents. Therefore, it is very necessary to research marine human errors, to discuss the contexts which caused human errors and how the contexts effect human behavior. Based on the detailed investigation of human errors in collision avoidance behavior which is the most key mission in navigation and the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs), human reliability of mariners in collision avoidance was analyzed by using the integration of APJE and SLIM. Result shows that this combined method is effective and can be used for the research of maritime human reliability.
In order to set up preventive measures for the safe navigation of ships,according to the(unascertained) characteristics of the port traffic environment,by the help of the theory and methods of(unascertained) mathematics,an unascertained measure model is established for port traffic risk assessment.In this model,the weight of evaluating index is obtained on the theory of the information entropy.This method is applied to assess the environmental risk of Taizhou Port and Jiaxing Port of 13 different(areas.) It shows that the results obtained by the unascertained measure model for port traffic risk assessments accord with the practical investigations.
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