Background: Nonoperative treatment of stable juvenile osteochondritis dissecans (JOCD) lesions of the knee fails in up to 50% of cases. Healing predictors are needed to identify potential failures and thus determine treatment options. Purpose: A predictive model for healing potential after 6 and 12 months of nonoperative treatment of stable JOCD lesions based on sensitive magnetic resonance imagining (MRI) follow-up measurements was developed. Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted to analyze 62 white patients (76 stable JOCD lesions) who were initially treated by restriction of activity until they were free of pain. The primary end point was healing investigated on MRI with follow-up measurements after 6 and 12 months of nonoperative treatment. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the influence of age, sex, JOCD lesion size, clinical symptoms, and the occurrence of cystlike lesions (CLLs) on healing potential. Additionally, optimal prognostic cutoffs were defined to differentiate failures from nonfailures. Results: After 6 months of nonoperative treatment, 51 (67%) of 76 stable JOCD lesions showed no progression toward healing or showed signs of instability. Normalized lesion width and area and CLL occurrence differed significantly between failures and nonfailures ( P < .05). A multivariate logistic regression best-predictors model that included age, CLL size, and normalized lesion width best predicted healing after 6 months and resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.779 ( P < .001). A cutoff at 48% healing probability, as predicted by a nomogram based on age, normalized lesion width, and CLL size, differentiated failures from nonfailures (sensitivity, 60.0%; specificity, 83.7%). After 12 months, 37 lesions (49%) had progressed toward healing, and the sole observation of CLL size had the highest predictive validity (AUC, 0.766). The optimal cutoff was a healing probability of 61% (lesion size, 1.3 mm; sensitivity, 70.3%; specificity, 74.1%). Conclusion: A 6-month period of nonoperative treatment with or without casting might be appropriate if the healing potential is >48%. A 12-month period of nonoperative treatment may be successful if the CLL is <1.3 mm in length as assessed on MRI.
Introduction: Worldwide, incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) have increased over the last decades. We present a systematic epidemiological study with recent prevalence and incidence rates of MS in Bavaria. Methods: Incidence and prevalence of MS stratified by gender, age groups and region were analyzed by data records from 2006 to 2015 of more than 10 million people insured by the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. Official statistics of the German Federal Ministry of Health provided the size of the general population. Future prevalence was estimated with a predictive model. Results: From 2006 to 2015 prevalence of MS in Bavaria increased from 171 per 100,000 to 277 per 100,000, while incidence rates remained relatively stable (range 16 to 18 per 100,000 inhabitants with a female to male ratio between 2.4:1 and 2:1). Incidence and prevalence were higher in urban than urbanized and rural areas. The prevalence is expected to increase to 374 per 100,000 in 2040 with the highest prevalence rates between 50 and 65 years. Conclusion: The prevalence of MS in Bavaria is among the highest worldwide and will further rise over the next two decades. This demonstrates a need to strengthen healthcare provision systems due to the increasing numbers of particularly older patients with MS in the future.
Despite general practitioners' (GPs') key role in Germany`s primary health care, clinical research in general practice is scarce. Clinical research is mainly conducted at inpatient facilities, although their results are rarely transferable. German GPs have no extra time or funding for research, as well as limited research training. To support clinical research in German primary health care, practice-based research networks (PBRNs) are developed. As they will be based on an active involvement of GPs, we need more information on GPs` participation-readiness. The aim of this study was to explore facilitators and barriers to participation in the Bavarian Research Practice Network (BayFoNet) from the GPs`perspective before clinical trials will be performed.
To investigate the hypothesis that vaccination is a risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) by use of German ambulatory claims data in a case-control study.Using the ambulatory claims data of the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians covering 2005-2017, logistic regression models were used to assess the relation between MS (n = 12,262) and vaccinations in the 5 years before first diagnosis. Participants newly diagnosed with Crohn disease (n = 19,296) or psoriasis (n = 112,292) and participants with no history of these autoimmune diseases (n = 79,185) served as controls.The odds of MS were lower in participants with a recorded vaccination (odds ratio [OR] 0.870, p < 0.001 vs participants without autoimmune disease; OR 0.919, p < 0.001 vs participants with Crohn disease; OR 0.973, p = 0.177 vs participants with psoriasis). Lower odds were most pronounced for vaccinations against influenza and tick-borne encephalitis. These effects were consistently observed for different time frames, control cohorts, and definitions of the MS cohort. Effect sizes increased toward the time of first diagnosis.Results of the present study do not reveal vaccination to be a risk factor for MS. On the contrary, they consistently suggest that vaccination is associated with a lower likelihood of being diagnosed with MS within the next 5 years. Whether this is a protective effect needs to be addressed by future studies.
Abstract Epstein–Barr virus positivity (EBV(+)) and high‐microsatellite instability (MSI‐H) have been identified as molecular subgroups in gastric carcinoma. The aim of our study was to determine the prognostic and predictive relevance of these subgroups in the context of platinum/5‐fluorouracil (5‐FU) based preoperative chemotherapy (CTx). Additionally, we investigated the clinical relevance of the low‐MSI (MSI‐L) phenotype. We analysed 760 adenocarcinomas of the stomach or the gastro‐oesophageal junction encompassing 143 biopsies before CTx and 617 resected tumours (291 without and 326 after CTx). EBV was determined by PCR and in situ hybridisation for selected cases. MSI was analysed by PCR using five microsatellite markers and classified as MSI‐H and MSI‐L. Frequencies of EBV(+), MSI‐H and MSI‐L in the biopsies before CTx were 4.2, 10.5 and 4.9% respectively. EBV(+) or MSI‐H did not correlate with response, but MSI‐L was associated with better response ( p = 0.011). In the resected tumours, frequencies of EBV(+), MSI‐H and MSI‐L were 3.9, 9.6 and 4.5% respectively. Overall survival (OS) was significantly different in the non‐CTx group ( p = 0.014). Patients with EBV(+) tumours showed the best OS, followed by MSI‐H. MSI‐L was significantly associated with worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 2.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–4.04, p = 0.01). In the resected tumours after CTx, MSI‐H was also associated with increased OS (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.26–1.09, p = 0.085). In multivariable analysis, molecular classification was an independent prognostic factor in the completely resected (R0) non‐CTx group ( p = 0.035). In conclusion, MSI‐H and EBV(+) are not predictive of response to neoadjuvant platinum/5‐FU based CTx, but they are indicative of a good prognosis. In particular, MSI‐H indicates a favourable prognosis irrespective of treatment with CTx. MSI‐L predicts good response to CTx and its negative prognostic effect for patients treated with surgery alone suggests that MSI‐L might help to identify patients with potentially high‐benefit from preoperative CTx.
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is predominantly characterized by a progressive loss of motor function. While autonomic dysfunction has been described in ALS, little is known about the prevalence of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and intestinal dysfunction. We investigated disease severity, LUTS and intestinal dysfunction in 43 patients with ALS attending our outpatient department applying the ALS functional rating scale, the International Consultation on Incontinence Modular Questionnaire, the Urinary Distress Inventory and the Cleveland Clinic Incontinence Score. Results were compared to the German population of a cross-sectional study assessing LUTS in the healthy population, the EPIC study. Results showed that urinary incontinence was increased in patients with ALS aged ≥ 60 years compared to the EPIC cohort (female: 50%/19% (ALS/EPIC), p = 0.026; male: 36%/11% (ALS/EPIC), p = 0.002). No difference was seen at 40–59 years of age. Urge incontinence was the predominant presentation (73% of symptoms). A high symptom burden was stated (ICIQ-SF quality of life subscore 5.5/10). Intake of muscle relaxants and anticholinergics was associated with both urinary incontinence and severity of symptoms. Furthermore, a high prevalence of constipation (46%), but not stool incontinence (9%), was noted. In conclusion, the increased prevalence of urge incontinence and high symptom burden imply that in patients with ALS, LUTS should be increasingly investigated for.
