Isaac Larbi

University of Environment and Sustainable Development

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Co-Authors

Andrew Manoba Limantol

University of Environment and Sustainable Development

Sam-Quarcoo Dotse

University of Environment and Sustainable Development

Daniel Kwawuvi

Université d'Abomey-Calavi

Clement Nyamekye

Koforidua Technical University

Enoch Bessah

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

Fabien C. C. Hountondji

Université de Parakou

Gloria C. Okafor

Nigeria Maritime University

Abdul‐Rauf Malimanga Alhassan

University of Environment and Sustainable Development

Mwemezi J. Rwiza

Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology

Daouda Mama

Université d'Abomey-Calavi

Cooperative Institutions

Université d'Abomey-Calavi

West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

University of Environment and Sustainable Development

University of Energy and Natural Resources

Kwame Nkrumah University

University for Development Studies

University of Lomé

Burkina Faso Ministry of the Environment, Green Economy, and Climate Change

Federal University of Technology Minna

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Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment, West Africa

Hydrological Sciences Journal (2020)

Isaac Larbi Emmanuel Obuobie Anne Verhoef Stefan Jülich Karl-Henz Feger

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.

Water balance

Afforestation

Land Cover

10.1080/02626667.2020.1802467

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Citations (24)

Analyses of crop water use and environmental performance of small private irrigation along the white Volta basin of Northern Ghana

ISEE Conference Abstracts (2024)

Rosemary Anderson Akolaa Abdul Rauf Malimanga Alhassan Andrew Manoba Limantol Isaac Larbi Gilbert Ayine Akolgo

White (mutation)

10.1289/isee.2024.0582

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Citations (0)

Climate Change Impact on Climate Extremes and Adaptation Strategies in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

Springer eBooks (2021)

Isaac Larbi Clement Nyamekye Fabien C. C. Hountondji Gloria C. Okafor Peter Rock Ebo Odoom

Vulnerability

Climate extremes

10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8_95-1

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Citations (3)

Spatiotemporal variability and change in rainfall in the Oti River Basin, West Africa

Journal of Water and Climate Change (2022)

Daniel Kwawuvi Daouda Mama Sampson K. Agodzo Andreas Hartmann Isaac Larbi

Abstract Understanding rainwater dispersion in a spatiotemporal context is invaluable toward resourceful water management and a food-secure society. This study, therefore, assessed the variations in rainfall at a spatiotemporal scale in the Oti River Basin of West Africa for observed (1981–2010) and future periods (2021–2050) under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Rainfall data from meteorological stations and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) were used. The percentage changes in rainfall for the peak month as well as for rainy and dry seasons under the two climate scenarios were determined. The coefficient of variation (CV) and the standardized anomaly index (SAI) were used to assess annual variations in rainfall. In general, under both emission scenarios, rainfall is projected to decrease over the study area. However, the amount of rainfall during the peak month (August) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 could increase by 0.26 and 9.3%, respectively. The highest SAIs for the observed period were +1.58 (2009) and −2.29 (1983) with the latter showing a relationship with historic drought in the basin. The projected SAI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicated extremely wet (+2.12) and very wet (+1.91) periods for the years 2037 and 2028, respectively. The study provides relevant information and a chance to aid the design of innovative adaptation measures toward efficient water management and agricultural planning for the basin.

Anomaly (physics)

Representative Concentration Pathways

Rainwater Harvesting

10.2166/wcc.2022.368

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Citations (12)

Analysis of past and projected changes in extreme precipitation indices in some watersheds in Côte d'Ivoire

Journal of Water and Climate Change (2023)

N’da Jocelyne Maryse Christine Amichiatchi Jean Hounkpè Gneneyougo Émile Soro Ojelabi Oluwatoyin Khadijat Isaac Larbi

Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyse trends in annual rainfall extremes over five watersheds within Côte d'Ivoire using observed (1976–2017) and projected (2020–2050) rainfall data from the fourth version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, for the representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Four rainfall extreme indices, namely, the consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum annual rainfall (Pmaxan), very wet day (R95p), and maximum 5-day rainfall (Rx5days), were considered for trend analysis by using the non-parametric modified Mann–Kendall test and the distribution mapping bias-correction technique to adjust the simulated regional climate model of the simulated daily precipitation. As a result, it is found that during the period 1976–2017, there was a significant downward trend in the drought-related index (CDD) at the Bagoue, Baya, Agneby, and Lobo watersheds. The Baya and N'zo watersheds also experienced a significant downward trend under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The flood-related indices (Pmaxan, R95p, and Rx5days) show a clear downward trend in the recorded data for almost all the considered watersheds and generally a significant upward trend for both cases. These findings indicate that the watersheds are vulnerable to climate-induced disasters.

Trend analysis

10.2166/wcc.2023.365

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Citations (2)

Modelling of streamflow before and after dam construction in the Mono River Basin in Togo-Benin, West Africa

International Journal of River Basin Management (2021)

Houteta Djan’na Koubodana Julien Adounkpè Kossi Atchonouglo Koffi Djaman Isaac Larbi

The sub-tropical region of West Africa is not only vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change but also to the changes in land management. The goal of this study was to model streamflow in the Mono River Basin (MRB) for the period before (1964–1986) and after (1988–2011) dam construction. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using input data such as a digital elevation model, soil and land use, and daily climate data model was set up, calibrated and validated for the period before dam construction (SIM1) and after dam construction (SIM2). The model sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis were performed based on daily observed streamflow using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting procedure (SUFI-2) algorithm. The change in seasonal and annual streamflow between SIM1 and SIM2 was assessed and linked with land use/cover change between 1975 and 2000. The SWAT model shows satisfactory performance with Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) ≥ 0.60 and percent bias |PBIAS| ≤ ±20 during calibration and KGE ≥ 0.50 and |PBIAS| ≤ ±15 during validation of SIM1 and SIM2. The results further showed that the construction of the dam affected the hydrological system of the catchment with a change in annual average streamflow between SIM1 and SIM2 of −14.13%, −19.86% and 3.66% at Athiéme, Tététou and Corrokope stations, respectively. The simulated average streamflow amplitude of SIM2 has decreased globally compared to SIM1. Therefore, the changes detected in land use/cover may have affected the average streamflow in response to the difference in amplitude simulated streamflow of SIM1 and SIM2. The finding of this analysis demonstrated that the impacts of dam construction on streamflow are challenging and crucial for water resource management in MRB.

SWAT model

Land Cover

10.1080/15715124.2021.1969943

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Citations (6)

Predictive Land Use Change under Business-As-Usual and Afforestation Scenarios in the Vea Catchment, West Africa

International Journal of Advanced Remote Sensing and GIS (2019)

Isaac Larbi Gerald Forkuor Fabien C. C. Hountondji Wilson Agyei Agyare Daouda Mama

This study aimed to assess the historical Land use/land cover (LULC) changes and project the future (2025) LULC pattern in the Vea catchment based on Business as Usual (BAU) and afforestation scenarios of land use. Landsat Imagery of 1990, 2001, 2011 and 2016 were classified at overall accuracy assessment of 82%, 86%, 85% and 88% respectively. Major transitions were modeled using the Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network algorithm, and the future scenarios maps of LULC were projected based on the Markov chain after validation of the Land Change Modeler. The results indicate the conversion of forest/mixed vegetation (23.1%) and grassland (76.9%) to cropland as the dominant LULC conversion from 1990 to 2016. An increase in cropland, built-up areas, and water bodies were observed while grassland and forest/ mixed vegetation decreased over the last 27 years. The 2025 LULC simulation indicates continuous expansion of cropland at the expense of forest/mixed vegetation which is projected to decrease by 4.5% in 2025 for the BAU scenario. Under afforestation scenario, where forest/mixed vegetation and grassland are expected to increase, cropland is projected to decrease by 20% in 2025. These findings set a reference ground for sustainable land use governance through responsible planning and management of land and water resources by considering trade-offs between cropland expansion and ecosystems’ preservation in the Vea catchment.

Afforestation

10.23953/cloud.ijarsg.416

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Citations (22)

Rainfall and temperature projections and the implications on streamflow and evapotranspiration in the near future at the Tano River Basin of Ghana

Scientific African (2021)

Isaac Larbi Clement Nyamekye Sam-Quarcoo Dotse Derrick Kwadwo Danso Thompson Annor

Climate change is projected to negatively affect water security which is already a challenge in many areas of Ghana including the Tano river basin (TRB). This study assessed the projections of rainfall and temperature and its impact on streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (ET) in the TRB of Ghana for 2021-2050 relative to the period 1986-2015. The impact assessment focused on how climate change under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) based on an ensemble mean of two regional climate models (RCMs) would affect streamflow and ET using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Trend analysis and quantification for the streamflow and ET were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall's and Sen's slope estimators. The results show that the mean annual rainfall of 1401.9 mm would increase slightly by 0.5 % with a decreasing trend (1.22mm/yr) under the RCP4.5 scenario, but would decrease by 3.2% with a decreasing trend (0.3m mm/yr) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mean annual temperature showed an increase (2.1 °C and 2.6 °C) with a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.07 and 0.09 °C/yr under RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. An increase in ET with a non-significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.74 and 1.07 mm/year under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively is also projected. The mean annual streamflow is projected to decrease, with the decrease been more pronounced under the RCP8.5 (37.5%) scenario compared to the RCP4.5 scenario (19.9%). In general, the outcome of this study presents a useful perspective on the vulnerability of water resources to climate change and the need for better planning and management of the water resources in the basin.

SWAT model

Representative Concentration Pathways

10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e01071

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Citations (15)

Climate Change Impact on Climate Extremes and Adaptation Strategies in the Vea Catchment, Ghana

Springer eBooks (2021)

Isaac Larbi Clement Nyamekye Fabien C. C. Hountondji Gloria Chinwendu Okafor Peter Rock Ebo Odoom

Vulnerability

Climate extremes

10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6_95

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Citations (1)

Rainfall projections under different climate scenarios over the Kaduna River Basin, Nigeria

Discover Environment (2024)

Gloria C. Okafor K. N. Ogbu Jacob Agyekum Andrew Manoba Limantol Isaac Larbi

Abstract This research aimed to assess changes in mean and extreme rainfall within the Kaduna River Basin (KRB), specifically examining the implications of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)—4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Employing a quantile mapping technique, this study corrected inherent biases in four Regional Climate Models, enabling the examination of mean precipitation and six indices capturing extreme precipitation events for the 2050s. These findings were compared against a historical reference period spanning from 1981 to 2010, considering the basin's upstream and downstream segments. Results revealed an average annual rainfall reduction under scenarios 4.5 (21.39%) and 8.5 (20.51%) across the basin. This decline exhibited a more pronounced impact on monthly rainfall during the wet season (April to October) compared to the dry season (November to March). Notably, a substantial decrement in wet indices, excluding consecutive wet days (CWD), was foreseen in both seasons for the upstream and downstream areas, signalling an impending drier climate. The anticipated rise in consecutive dry days (CDD) is poised to manifest prominently downstream attributed to global warming-induced climate change brought on by increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These findings accentuate a heterogeneous distribution of extreme rainfall, potentially leading to water scarcity issues throughout the KRB, especially impacting upstream users. Moreover, the projections hint at an increased risk of flash floods during intense wet periods. Consequently, this study advocates the implementation of targeted disaster risk management strategies within the KRB to address these foreseeable challenges.

Representative Concentration Pathways

Dry season

Wet season

Flash flood

10.1007/s44274-024-00127-0

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Citations (0)