The cover image is based on the Original Article Climate and conspecific density inform phenotypic forecasting of juvenile Pacific salmon body size, by Marta E. Ulaski et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.13850.
Abstract Predicting effects of climate on fitness‐linked phenotypic traits, such as body size, is important for the management and conservation of species in the face of global change. During sensitive life stages, small changes in mean trait values can have large effects on survival and population productivity. The transition from freshwater to saltwater by migrating anadromous fishes such as Pacific salmon (genus Oncorhynchus ) is a critical life history transition, where survival is mediated by the size of migrating individuals. For salmon that spend extended periods rearing in freshwater, the size at ocean entry (i.e., smolt length) may be sensitive to changes in freshwater conditions shaped by biotic and abiotic factors, yet long‐term phenotypic time series for exploring these responses are rare. We reconstructed a four‐decade time series of smolt length from archives of returning adult scales to quantify population‐specific responses to climate and conspecific density in a small watershed. Dynamic linear modeling found that the relationship between a proxy for cohort density and smolt length at ocean entry was consistently negative, suggestive of competition. In contrast, there was a positive, yet dynamic, relationship between a proxy for density of emerging fry during the second summer of growth and smolt length. The effect of temperature on smolt length was not consistent between two populations of sockeye salmon O . nerka that likely use distinct habitats within the watershed. A positive relationship between smolt length and temperature was only detected for the less abundant, early returning population. Predictions of smolt length showed variable responses under scenarios of increasing temperature and high and low densities of conspecifics. Collectively, these results reveal population‐specific responses to temperature and density, suggesting that local habitat conditions may filter larger‐scale climate drivers.
Abstract Management objectives for long-lived species are difficult to define because many taxa have delayed maturity and variable recruitment. White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus is an example of a species with a complex life history that complicates long-term status monitoring and establishment of management objectives. Historically, White Sturgeon in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin have been monitored by tracking the abundance of age-15 individuals as outlined by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act. However, infrequent recruitment complicates progress toward Central Valley Project Improvement Act management objectives because abundance of a single cohort fails to represent overall population trends. By using a Leslie population matrix, we demonstrate that the probability of reaching the Central Valley Project Improvement Act objective of 11,000 age-15 White Sturgeon is highly unlikely. We propose an alternative metric of 155,000 adults, which better represents overall population trends of White Sturgeon in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin, can be efficiently monitored, and can support both the goal of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act and management objectives.
Abstract Warming temperatures can have negative consequences for aquatic organisms, especially cold‐adapted fishes such as Pacific salmon. The magnitude of warming is related to the thermal sensitivity of streams in salmon‐bearing watersheds (i.e., change in stream temperature for every 1°C increase in air temperature), which can vary based on several factors including streamflow. Management actions to increase streamflow may therefore benefit salmon by decreasing thermal sensitivity. However, the effects of streamflow on thermal sensitivity are often complex, as the temperature of flow inputs can directly increase or decrease temperatures. This study aimed to disentangle the influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity and stream temperature over 4 years in the Nicola River, a regulated semiarid watershed in south‐central British Columbia, Canada. A statistical modeling approach was used to estimate streamflow effects on stream temperatures and thermal sensitivity (i.e., relationship of regional air temperature to stream temperature) at 12 sites from 2018 to 2021. Streamflow had a variable influence on stream temperatures across the watershed via both direct effects and by modulating thermal sensitivity. At a given site, streamflow was generally negatively associated with summer daily mean stream temperature, but the magnitude of its influence varied among locations and years. The influence of streamflow on thermal sensitivity was also highly variable both spatially and temporally. The analysis suggests that there may be complex relationships between streamflow, stream temperature, and thermal sensitivity, which complicates the efficacy of flow as a lever to mitigate high temperatures in regulated systems.
Abstract Traditional methods for estimating abundance of fish populations are not feasible in some systems due to complex population structure and constraints on sampling effort. Lincoln’s estimator provides a technique that uses harvest and harvest rate to estimate abundance. Using angler catch data allows assumptions of the estimator to be addressed without relying on methods that could be prohibitively field-intensive or costly. Historic estimates of White Sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus abundance in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin have been obtained using mark–recapture methods; however, White Sturgeon population characteristics often cause violations of model assumptions, such as population closure and independent capture probabilities. We developed a version of Lincoln’s estimator using a joint likelihood, estimated abundance of White Sturgeon in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin in 2015 using this method and empirical data and assessed accuracy and precision of estimates in a simulation study. Estimating abundance using harvest and harvest rate, as represented by our model framework, has the potential to be precise and accurate. The joint likelihood–based approach fitted using Bayesian methods is advantageous because it includes all sources of variation in a single model. Precision of abundance estimates was low with application of the model to White Sturgeon in the Sacramento–San Joaquin River basin and to similar conditions in a simulated dataset. Using simulation, precision and accuracy increased with increases in the number of high-reward and standard tags released, tag reporting rate, tag retention rate, and harvest rate. Results demonstrate potential sources of error when using this approach and suggest that increasing the number of tagged fish and tag reporting rate are potential actions to improve precision and accuracy of abundance estimates of the model.
Abstract The Green Sturgeon Acipenser medirostris is an anadromous, long-lived species that is distributed along the Pacific coast of North America. Green Sturgeon is vulnerable to global change because of its sensitive life history (e.g., delayed maturation) and few spawning locations. The persistence of Green Sturgeon is threatened by habitat modification, altered flows, and rising river temperatures. In 2006, because of persistent stressors, the U.S. Endangered Species Act listed the southern distinct population segment as threatened. Despite increased research efforts on this species after the listing, substantial gaps in basic population information for Green Sturgeon remain. We present the only published information on age structure and growth of a threatened population of Green Sturgeon. By analyzing archived fin rays collected from 1984 to 2016, we revealed highly variable growth among individuals. We detected several age classes from 0 to 26 y and found similar growth rates of southern distinct population segment Green Sturgeon compared with northern population Green Sturgeon. Although limited, this analysis is an important first step to understanding Green Sturgeon population dynamics and highlights critical research needs.
Due to the mediating role of body size in determining fitness, the "bigger-is-better" hypothesis still pervades evolutionary ecology despite evidence that natural selection on phenotypic traits varies in time and space. For Pacific salmon (genus
Abstract Obtaining reliable information on the age structure of fish populations is important for making conservation and management decisions. We sought to evaluate precision and reader confidence in age estimates from scales (two body locations), sectioned fin rays (pectoral, pelvic, anal), and sectioned sagittal otoliths from Apache Trout Oncorhynchus apache (n = 78 fish) sampled from the East Fork White River, Arizona, in 2017. Two experienced readers without prior knowledge of fish length aged structures independently. Each reader provided a confidence rating of 0 (no confidence) to 3 (completely confident) as a measure of readability. Both readers were unable to estimate age from scales collected from the area just posterior to the insertion of the pectoral fin. We used scales removed from an area just dorsal to the lateral line and posterior to the dorsal fin in all analyses. Percentage of exact agreement between readers was highest for scales and otoliths (>72.0%) and lowest for fin rays (31.8–58.1%). Average confidence rating was highest for sectioned otoliths (mean ± SE, 2.1 ± 0.07), and lowest for anal fin rays (0.3 ± 0.06) and scales (0.7 ± 0.05). We compared consensus ages from otoliths to the other structures. Percentage of exact agreement with otolith age was low and varied from 21.6 to 35.7% among structures. Similarly, percentage of agreement within 1 y was also low among structures (58.0–70.2%). Scales consistently underestimated age of age-4 and older fish (based on otolith age), whereas fin rays tended to overestimate age of younger fish and underestimate age of older Apache Trout. Although sectioned otoliths require lethal sampling, they produced the most precise age estimates for Apache Trout with the highest reader confidence. Dorsal scales may be a suitable nonlethal alternative to otoliths if ages for only young fish (age 3 and younger) meet study objectives.
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