Summary Objectives To investigate the relationship between distance to water source, altitude and active trachoma in children in Rombo district, Tanzania. Methods In each of Rombo's 64 villages, 10 balozis (groups of 8–40 households) were selected at random and all resident children aged 1–9 years were examined for clinical signs of active trachoma. The households of these children and village water sources were mapped using differentially corrected global positioning system data to determine each household's altitude and distance to the nearest water supply. Results We examined 12 415 children and diagnosed 1171 cases of active trachoma (weighted prevalence = 9.1%, 95% CI: 8.0, 10.2%). Active trachoma prevalence ranged from 0% to 33.7% across villages. Increasing distance to the nearest water source was significantly associated with rising trachoma prevalence (age‐adjusted odds ratio for infection (OR) for highest quartile compared to lowest = 3.56, 95% CI 2.47, 5.14, P for trend <0.0001). Altitude was significantly inversely associated with trachoma prevalence (age‐adjusted OR for highest quartile compared to lowest = 0.55, 95% CI 0.41, 0.75, P for trend <0.0001). These associations remained significant after adjustment in multivariate analysis. Conclusions Trachoma is endemic in Rombo district, although the prevalence varies considerably between villages. Spatial mapping is a useful method for analysing risk factors for active trachoma.
Purpose of review To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact. Recent findings We use mathematical modelling of 'universal test and treat' as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission. Summary Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, whereas complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and, thus, be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis in which assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.
Little is known about the reproductive health of women who survive obstetric complications in poor countries. Our aim was to determine how severe obstetric complications in Burkina Faso affect reproductive events in the first year postpartum.Data were collected from a prospective cohort of women who either experienced life threatening (near-miss) pregnancy-related complications or an uncomplicated childbirth, followed from the end of pregnancy to one year postpartum or post-abortum. Documented outcomes include menses resumption, sexual activity resumption, dyspareunia, uptake of contraceptives, unmet needs for contraception and women's reproductive intentions.Participants were recruited in seven hospitals between December 2004 and March 2005 in six towns in Burkina Faso.Reproductive events were associated with pregnancy outcome. The frequency of contraceptive use was low in all groups and the method used varied according to the presence or not of a live baby. The proportion with unmet need for contraception was high and varied according to the time since end of pregnancy. Desire for another pregnancy was highest among near-miss women with perinatal death or natural abortion. Women in the near-miss group with induced abortion, perinatal death and natural abortion had significantly higher odds of subsequent pregnancy. Unintended pregnancies were observed mainly in women in the near-miss group with live birth and the uncomplicated delivery group.Considering the potential deleterious impact (on health and socio-economic life) of new pregnancies in near-miss women, it is important to ensure family planning coverage includes those who survive a severe complication.
Can a COVID-19 Vaccination Program Guarantee the Return to a Pre-pandemic Lifestyle? 2 RR:C19 Evidence Scale rating by reviewer:Not informative.The flaws in the data and methods in this study are sufficiently serious that they do not substantially justify the claims made.It is not possible to say whether the results and conclusions would match that of the hypothetical ideal study.
Background: Screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are key for TB control. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the British HIV Association (BHIVA) give conflicting guidance on which groups of people with HIV (PWH) should be screened, and previous national analysis demonstrated heterogeneity in how guidance is applied. There is an urgent need for a firmer clinical effectiveness evidence base on which to build screening policy. Methods: We conducted a systematic, programmatic LTBI-screening intervention for all PWH receiving care in Leicester, UK. We compared yields (percentage IGRA positive) and number of tests required when applying the NICE and BHIVA testing strategies, as well as strategies targeting screening by TB incidence in patients’ countries of birth. Results: Of 1053 PWH tested, 118 were IGRA-positive (11.2%). Positivity was associated with higher TB incidence in country-of-birth [adjusted odds ratio, 50–149 cases compared with <50 cases/100 000: 11.6; 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.79–28.10)]. There was high testing uptake (1053/1069, 98.5%). Appropriate chemoprophylaxis was commenced in 100 of 117 (85.5%) patients diagnosed with LTBI, of whom 96 of 100 (96.0%) completed treatment. Delivering targeted testing to PWH from countries with TB incidence greater than 150 per 100 000 population or any sub-Saharan African country, would have correctly identified 89.8% of all LTBI cases while cutting tests required by 46.1% compared with NICE guidance, performing as well as BHIVA 2018 guidance. Conclusion: Targeting screening to higher risk PWH increases yield and reduces the number requiring testing. Our proposed ‘PWH-LTBI streamlined guidance’ offers a simplified approach, with the potential to improve national LTBI-screening implementation.
Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model.World Health Organization regions.We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal).Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions.HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.
Abstract The World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) 2030 road map for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) emphasizes the importance of strengthened, institutionalized “post-elimination” surveillance. The required shift from disease-siloed, campaign-based programming to routine, integrated surveillance and response activities presents epidemiological, logistical, and financial challenges, yet practical guidance on implementation is lacking. Nationally representative survey programs, such as demographic and health surveys (DHS), may offer a platform for the integration of NTD surveillance within national health systems and health information systems. Here, we describe characteristics of DHS and other surveys conducted within the WHO Africa region in terms of frequency, target populations, and sample types and discuss applicability for post-validation and post-elimination surveillance. Maximizing utility depends not only on the availability of improved diagnostics but also on better understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of transmission at low prevalence. To this end, we outline priorities for obtaining additional data to better characterize optimal post-elimination surveillance platforms.
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