We estimate a vector error correction (VEC) model for Sri Lanka to determine the response of remittance receipts to macroeconomic shocks. This is the first attempt of its kind in the literature. We find that remittance receipts are procyclical and decline when the island's currency weakens, undermining their usefulness as shock absorber. On the other hand, remittances increase in response to oil price shocks, reflecting the fact that most overseas. Sri Lankan are employed in the Gulf states. The procyclicality of remittances calls into question the notion that remittances are largely motivated by altruism.
Do Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) suffer from a debt overhang? Is debt relief going to improve their growth rates? To answer these important questions, we look at how the debt-growth relationship varies with indebtedness levels and other country characteristics in a panel of developing countries. Our findings suggest that there is a negative marginal relationship between debt and growth at intermediate levels of debt, but not at very low debt levels, below the “debt overhang” threshold, or at very high levels, above the “debt irrelevance” threshold. Countries with good policies and institutions face overhang when debt rises above 15-30 percent of GDP, but the marginal effect of debt on growth becomes irrelevant above 70-80 percent. In countries with bad policies and institutions, overhang and irrelevance thresholds seem to be lower, but we cannot rule out the possibility that debt does not matter at all.
This document presents a comprehensive analysis of challenges and opportunities for promoting inclusive and sustainable development in Belize on a sectoral level, where rekindling faster, sustained economic growth is arguably one of the country's most significant development challenges. The unprecedented hit of the COVID-19 pandemic has added pressure to an economy with characteristically low growth, and dramatically transformed Belize's economic and social outlook. Reigniting economic growth that is sustainable and inclusive, as well as removing structural bottlenecks, requires addressing three priority areas categorized here as pillars. These pillars are: (i) Anchoring fiscal policy for growth, (ii) Transforming the export sector through diversification, integration, and innovation, and (iii) Providing social protection and skills to shape the future. These development challenges are interdependent and tackling them will require a collaborative and synchronous approach. At the IADB, we trust the BIDeconomics Belize will be a valuable tool for the Government of Belize and the country's stakeholders to overcome these challenges. BIDeconomics is a series of publications by the Department of Countries of Central America Haiti, Mexico, Panama and the Dominican Republic that provides analysis and proposals to support the sustainable development of the countries of the region. Each publication summarizes the findings of the Country Development Challenges studies, which are respectively prepared as inputs for each of the IDB Country Strategies.
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.We estimate a vector error correction (VEC) model for Sri Lanka to determine the response of remittance receipts to macroeconomic shocks.This is the first attempt of its kind in the literature.We find that remittance receipts are procyclical and decline when the island's currency weakens, undermining their usefulness as shock absorber.On the other hand, remittances increase in response to oil price shocks, reflecting the fact that most overseas.Sri Lankan are employed in the Gulf states.The procyclicality of remittances calls into question the notion that remittances are largely motivated by altruism.
This working papers offers an impact evaluation of two innovative programs cash transfer schemes from the Mexican Government: PROGRESA, which is a national anti-poverty scheme directed at chronic rural poverty, and PROCAMPO, a scheme designed to compensate farmers for the negative price effects of NAFTA. The analysis of data collected for an evaluation of PROGRESA suggests that the overall level of food consumption and health check-ups is lower among PROGRESA households that also participate in PROCAMPO. The overall conclusions are that program conditionality does influence longer-term (human capital) and medium term (productive) investment decisions, the receipt of multiple forms of treatment by beneficiaries can affect the overall impact of each individual program, and conditional transfers may have muted effects among agricultural households in the face of market imperfections.
There has been little systematic empirical study on the relationship between remittances and growth. This paper attempts to examine this relationship. Using a newly constructed cross-country of data series for remittances covering a large sample of developing countries, we relate the interaction between remittances and financial development and its impact on growth. We analyze how a country's capacity to use remittances and its effectiveness in doing so might be influenced by local financial sector conditions. Given the difficulty of borrowing in developing countries, we explore the hypothesis that remittances can substitute for a lack of financial development and hence promote growth. The empirical analysis shows that remittances can promote growth in less financially developed countries. This relationship controls for the endogeneity of remittances and financial development using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, does not depend on the particular measure of financial sector development used, and is robust to a number of sensitivity tests.
Empirical analysis does not suggest that reserves are too high in the majority of Asian countries, though China may be a special case. Much of the reserve increase in Asia can be explained by an optimal insurance model under which reserves provide a steady source of liquidity to cushion the impact of a sudden stop in capital inflows on output and consumption. Moreover, the benefits of reserves in terms of reduced spreads on privately held external debt further explains the observed growth in reserves since 1997-98. Using threshold estimation techniques, the paper shows that most of Asia can still benefit from higher reserves in terms of reduced borrowing costs.