Frank Alsheimer

NOAA National Weather Service

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Bernhard Lee Lindner

College of Charleston

John M. Stern

University of California, Los Angeles

L Cynthia

American Meteorological Society

Keith Manda

American Meteorological Society

John Boris

American Meteorological Society

Franzeska Houtas Berrien

American Meteorological Society

Ruth Ivanov

American Meteorological Society

Anand Gnanadesikan

Johns Hopkins University

Min-Jeong Davis

American Meteorological Society

J. A. Jeffery

Natural Resources Conservation Service

Cooperative Institutions

American Meteorological Society

194

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service

NOAA National Weather Service

NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research

NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

Goddard Space Flight Center

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

University of Wisconsin–Madison

University of Maryland, College Park

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Increasing Risk Perception and Understanding of Hurricane Storm Tides Using an Interactive, Web-Based Visualization Approach

Journal of Coastal Research (2018)

Janet Johnson Bernhard Lee Lindner Frank Alsheimer

Lindner, B.L.; Johnson, J.; Alsheimer, F.; Duke, S.; Miller, G.D., and Evsich, R., 2018. Increasing risk perception and understanding of hurricane storm tides using an interactive, web-based visualization approach.Previous studies have shown that much of the public misinterprets standard hurricane storm surge text advisories or standard color-coded storm surge maps. A supplemental approach is proposed that allows users to simulate storm tide for various locations, tidal amounts, and hurricane scenarios and then visualize the estimated water depth on photographs of neighborhood landmarks. Potentially, the visual nature of this approach could enhance risk perception and understanding. The interactive aspect of this approach may engage users more than standard approaches, in addition to providing users with more information. Showing the threats at the neighborhood scale could make the risk more apparent and discourage development of risk-prone areas. Vulnerable groups such as the elderly, transient, or non-English speakers could benefit from the visual representation of the risk. Graphics could be useful for broadcasters and emergency management. However, as is the case with current techniques, this approach has difficulty representing uncertainty. One major shortfall of all current approaches is the parameterization and inclusion of waves as the storm surge travels inland. Waves could be easily visualized with this approach, should the science provide an adequate parameterization.

Storm Surge

Representation

Interactive Visualization

10.2112/jcoastres-d-17-00222.1

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Citations (10)

Storm-Scale Predictability and Analysis of the 13 April 2020 Central Savannah River Area Tornado Outbreak

Weather and Forecasting (2022)

Christopher A. Kerr Frank Alsheimer

Abstract An early morning tornado outbreak occurred on 13 April 2020 in the Central Savannah River Area. Multiple significant tornadoes were reported, resulting in fatalities and injuries. While the operational tornado warnings had positive lead times, the convective mode (quasi-linear convective system) increased the warning decision complexity. The timing of the event [0500–0600 local time (LT)] also made NWS-to-public communication difficult. The experimental NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) was run retrospectively for this case. The WoFS consists of 3–6-h ensemble forecasts initialized every 30 min, and the goals of the system are to bridge the gap between severe weather watches and warnings and to increase warning lead times. Multiple WoFS forecasts were initialized leading up to the first tornado report; those initialized prior to tornado warning issuance have high ensemble probabilities of low-level rotation in the appropriate areas based on subsequent tornado reports. This case highlights another example of the usefulness of WoFS before its eventual transition to operations. Using the WoFS forecasts, kinematic and thermodynamic storm–environment relationships are analyzed using ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA). The analyses suggest variations in the mesoscale environmental vertical wind profile are not as influential on mesovortex intensity as variations in the thermodynamic environment. Surface observations recorded prior to the tornado outbreak reveal subtle temperature and moisture gradients that may be the impetus for mesovortex intensification and tornadogenesis.

Predictability

Convective storm detection

Severe weather

10.1175/waf-d-21-0185.1

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Citations (7)

A WSR-88D Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Outer Rainband Tornadoes

Weather and Forecasting (1997)

Scott M. Spratt D. W. A. Sharp Pat Welsh Al Sandrik Frank Alsheimer

As part of the National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization and Restructuring Program, WSR-88D (NEXRAD) Doppler radar installation has been completed at each Weather Service Office in Florida. Recently, this powerful new tool provided unique opportunities for Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Melbourne NEXRAD Weather Service Office personnel to investigate tropical cyclone (TC) rainbands for evidence of tornadogenesis. This study provides a radar-based analysis of known tornadic mesocyclones associated with two mature tropical cyclones that were not landfalling in the vicinity of the tornado occurrence, namely, Tropical Storm Gordon (1994) and Hurricane Allison (1995). Based on successful NEXRAD sampling strategies, detailed analyses of storm-scale reflectivity and velocity signatures are conducted in the context of establishing preliminary critical criteria for use in the tornado detection and warning process. Important characteristics were found to include detection of discrete, small diameter >50 dBZ echos collocated with storm-relative rotational velocities of 6.5–15 m s−1. Rotational features, although often subtle, were identifiable for an average of 30 min prior to tornado production, with total durations of 1–2 h. Near the time of tornado touchdown, the core diameter of the low-level circulation couplets contracted to approximately 1.85 km (1 n mi), leading to an associated increase of shear across the circulation to 0.010 s−1 or greater. A comparison between the well-studied Great Plains tornadic supercell and the observed TC-tornado cells revealed a common trait of persistence. While the average depth of rotation associated with the TC-tornado cells (3.5 km) was much more shallow than their midwest counterparts, the ratio of depth of rotation to storm top were comparable. However, the shallow depth and weaker detectable rotation of the TC (tornadic) mesocyclones greatly reduced the detection capability of the current WSR-88D mesocyclone algorithm when compared to identification of traditional supercells. Based upon the analyzed data, the authors offer several recommendations to assist operational radar meteorologists with the challenging task of detecting outer rainband tornadoes. Additionally, the authors propose a new WSR-88D scan strategy (volume coverage pattern, VCP) that would provide additional low-level slices in lieu of several current upper-elevation angles. This new VCP would facilitate improved vertical sampling at lower heights where TC mesoscale circulations are most likely to be detected.

Rainband

Supercell

Mesocyclone

Severe weather

10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0479:awaotc>2.0.co;2

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Citations (73)

NEW MEMBERS

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2007)

Adam Allgood Anand Gnanadesikan Kevin Maschhoff Carl Schueler Frank Alsheimer

10.1175/1520-0477-88.9.1481

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An investigation of the significant tornado outbreak in southern South Carolina and northern coastal Georgia on March 15, 2008

24th Conference on Severe Local Storms (27–31 October 2008) (2008)

Frank Alsheimer

South carolina

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Tornado Warning Behavior and Decision Making in National Weather Service Forecast Offices

100th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (2020)

Frank Alsheimer

National weather service

Nowcasting

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An Effort to Increase Storm Surge Threat Awareness for the Charleston, SC Area Using a Web-based Visualization Tool and Associated Survey

29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (10-14 May 2010) (2010)

Frank Alsheimer

Storm Surge

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Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) Hyperspectral InfraRed Sounder Value Assessment Report

Jeffrey Adkins Frank Alsheimer P. E. Ardanuy Sid‐Ahmed Boukabara Sean Casey

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

10.25923/7zvz-fv26

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Citations (7)

Human Factors Affecting Tornado Warning Decisions in National Weather Service Forecast Offices

98th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting (2018)

Frank Alsheimer

National weather service

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Citations (1)

Potential Vorticity Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (1998)

John Molinari Steven Skubis David Vollaro Frank Alsheimer H. E. Willoughby

The interaction of marginal Tropical Storm Danny (1985) with an upper-tropospheric positive potential vorticity anomaly was examined. The intensification mechanism proposed earlier for mature Hurricane Elena appears to be valid for Danny as well, despite significant differences in the synoptic-scale environment and in the stage of the tropical cyclone prior to the interaction. Both storms experienced rapid pressure falls as a relatively small-scale positive upper potential vorticity anomaly began to superpose with the low-level tropical cyclone center. The interaction is described in terms of a complex interplay between vertical wind shear, diabatic heating, and mutual advection among vortices at and below the level of the outflow anticyclone. Despite this complexity, the superposition principle appears to be conceptually useful to describe the intensification of tropical cyclones during such interactions.

Tropical cyclogenesis

Cyclogenesis

Positive vorticity advection

Outflow

Diabatic

African easterly jet

Anomaly (physics)

10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<2632:pvaotc>2.0.co;2

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Citations (98)