Water-rich planets such as Earth are expected to become eventually uninhabitable, because liquid water does not remain stable at the surface as surface temperatures increase with the solar luminosity over time. Whether a large increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO$_2$ could also destroy the habitability of water-rich planets has remained unclear. We show with three-dimensional aqua-planet numerical experiments that CO$_2$-induced forcing as readily destabilizes the climate as does solar forcing. The climate instability is caused by a positive cloud feedback. The climate does not run away, but instead attains a new steady state with global-mean sea-surface temperatures above 330 K. The upper atmosphere is considerably moister in this warm steady state than in the reference climate, implying that the planet would be subject to substantial loss of water to space. For either a certain range of elevated CO$_2$ concentrations or solar irradiation, we find both cold and warm equilibrium states, implying that the transition to the warm state may not simply be reversed by removing the additional forcing.
Abstract Using seven single‐model ensembles and the two multimodel ensembles CMIP5 and CMIP6, we show that observed and simulated trends in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns are globally consistent when accounting for internal variability. Some individual ensemble members simulate trends in large‐scale SST patterns that closely resemble the observed ones. Observed regional trends that lie at the outer edge of the models' internal variability range allow two nonexclusive interpretations: (a) Observed trends are unusual realizations of the Earth's possible behavior and/or (b) the models are systematically biased but large internal variability leads to some good matches with the observations. The existing range of multidecadal SST trends is influenced more strongly by large internal variability than by differences in the model formulation or the observational data sets.
Abstract It is investigated how changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) might be reliably detected within a few decades, using the observations provided by the RAPID-MOC 26°N array. Previously, detectability of MOC changes had been investigated with a univariate MOC time series exhibiting strong internal variability, which would prohibit the detection of MOC changes within a few decades. Here, a modification of K. Hasselmann’s fingerprint technique is used: (simulated) observations are projected onto a time-independent spatial pattern of natural variability to derive a time-dependent detection variable. The fixed spatial pattern of natural variability is derived by regressing the zonal density gradient along 26°N against the strength of the MOC at 26°N within the coupled ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model’s (MPI-OM) control climate simulation. This pattern is confirmed against the observed anomalies found between the 1957 and the 2004 hydrographic occupations of the section. Onto this fixed spatial pattern of natural variability, both the existing hydrographic observations and simulated observations mimicking the RAPID-MOC 26°N array in three realizations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A1B are projected. For a random observation error of 0.01 kg m−3, and only using zonal density gradients between 1700- and 3100-m depth, statistically significant detection occurs with 95% reliability after about 30 yr, in the model and climate change scenario analyzed here. Compared to using a single MOC time series as the detection variable, continuous observations of zonal density gradients reduce the detection time by 50%. For the five hydrographic occupations of the 26°N transect, none of the analyzed depth ranges shows a significant trend between 1957 and 2004, implying that there was no MOC trend over the past 50 yr.
Abstract This paper investigates the impact of different ocean initialization strategies on the forecast skill of decadal prediction experiments performed with the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM) coupled model. The ocean initializations assimilate three-dimensional temperature and salinity anomalies from two different ocean state estimates, the ocean reanalysis of the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) and an ensemble of MPI-OM ocean experiments forced with the NCEP–NCAR atmospheric reanalysis. The results show that North Atlantic and Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variations can be skillfully predicted up to a decade ahead and with greater skill than by both uninitialized simulations and persistence forecasts. The regional distribution of SST predictive skill is similar in both initialization approaches; however, higher skill is found for the NCEP hindcasts than for the GECCO hindcasts when a combination of predictive skill measures is used. Skillful predictions of surface air temperature are obtained over northwestern Europe, northern Africa, and central-eastern Asia. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region stands out as the region with the highest predictive skill beyond the warming trend, in both SST and upper-ocean heat-content predictions. Here the NCEP hindcasts deliver the best results due to a more accurate initialization of the observed variability. The dominant mechanism for North Atlantic climate predictability is of dynamical origin and can be attributed to the initialization of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thus explaining the reoccurrence of high predictive skill within the second pentad of the hindcasts experiments. The results herein demonstrate that ocean experiments forced with the observed history of the atmospheric state constitute a simple but successful alternative strategy for the initialization of skillful climate predictions over the next decade.
Ocean warming is commonly considered unable to excite significant long‐term trends in polar motion. Here, however, we argue that this assumption needs to be revised. We demonstrate that steric sea level rise leads to a distinct pattern of horizontal mass redistribution within ocean basins and hence to ocean bottom pressure changes that alter Earth's inertia tensor on decadal and longer time scales. Based on Earth system model simulations, we estimate that ocean warming leads to polar motion of 0.15 to 0.20 milli‐arcseconds per one millimeter of thermal sea level rise. This is equivalent to a polar motion rate of about 0.47 milli‐arcseconds per year towards 155°W to 160°W for current projections of steric sea level rise during the 21st century. The proposed polar motion signal is therefore not negligible in comparison to other decadal and secular signals, and should be accounted for in the interpretation of polar motion observations.
Abstract Using a 0.1° ocean model, this paper establishes a consistent picture of the interaction of mesoscale eddy density fluxes with the geostrophic deep western boundary current (DWBC) in the Atlantic between 26°N and 20°S. Above the DWBC core (the level of maximum southward flow, ~2000-m depth), the eddies flatten isopycnals and hence decrease the potential energy of the mean flow, which agrees with their interpretation and parameterization in the Gent–McWilliams framework. Below the core, even though the eddy fluxes have a weaker magnitude, they systematically steepen isopycnals and thus feed potential energy to the mean flow, which contradicts common expectations. These two vertically separated eddy regimes are found through an analysis of the eddy density flux divergence in stream-following coordinates. In addition, pathways of potential energy in terms of the Lorenz energy cycle reveal this regime shift. The twofold eddy effect on density is balanced by an overturning in the plane normal to the DWBC. Its direction is clockwise (with upwelling close to the shore and downwelling further offshore) north of the equator. In agreement with the sign change in the Coriolis parameter, the overturning changes direction to anticlockwise south of the equator. Within the domain covered in this study, except in a narrow band around the equator, this scenario is robust along the DWBC.
Abstract. We study the contribution of eastern-boundary density variations to sub-seasonal and seasonal anomalies of the strength and vertical structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5° N, by means of the RAPID/MOCHA mooring array between April 2004 and October 2007. The major density anomalies are found in the upper 500 m, and they are often coherent down to 1400 m. The densities have 13-day fluctuations that are apparent down to 3500 m. The two strategies for measuring eastern-boundary density – a tall offshore mooring (EB1) and an array of moorings on the continental slope (EBH) – show little correspondence in terms of amplitude, vertical structure, and frequency distribution of the resulting basin-wide integrated transport fluctuations, implying that there are significant transport contributions between EB1 and EBH. Contrary to the original planning, measurements from EB1 cannot serve as backup or replacement for EBH: density needs to be measured directly at the continental slope to compute the full-basin density gradient. Fluctuations in density at EBH generate transport variability of 2 Sv rms in the AMOC, while the overall AMOC variability is 4.8 Sv rms. There is a pronounced deep-reaching seasonal cycle in density at the eastern boundary, which is apparent between 100 m and 1400 m, with maximum positive anomalies in spring and maximum negative anomalies in autumn. These changes drive anomalous southward upper mid-ocean flow in spring, implying maximum reduction of the AMOC, and vice-versa in autumn. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the AMOC arising from the eastern-boundary densities is 5.2 Sv peak-to-peak, dominating the 6.7 Sv peak-to-peak seasonal cycle of the total AMOC. Our analysis suggests that the seasonal cycle in density may be forced by the strong near-coastal seasonal cycle in wind stress curl.
Abstract Recent studies on the wind-generated power input to the geostrophic and nongeostrophic ocean circulation components have used expressions derived from Ekman dynamics. The present work extends and unifies previous studies by deriving an expression from the kinetic energy budget of the upper layer based on the primitive equations. Using this expression, the wind-generated power available to the deep ocean is estimated from an integration with the 1/10° ocean general circulation model of the Earth Simulator Center. The result shows that the total power generated by the wind at the sea surface is about 3.8 TW. About 30% of this power (1.1 TW) is passed through a surface layer of about 110-m thickness to the ocean beneath. Approximating the wind-generated power to the deep ocean using Ekman dynamics produces two large errors of opposite signs, which cancel each other to a large extent.
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