High-resolution atmospheric simulations (500 m) were used to assess viticultural areas under climatic stress in South Africa and New Zealand. The potential areas in which high daytime temperature stress was likely to affect grapevine photosynthesis and grape composition were identified. Results indicated different diurnal temperature variations within the two areas due to synoptic and local environmental factors, often associated with the influence of terrain.
Grapevines are highly sensitive to environmental conditions, with variability in weather and climate (particularly temperature) having a significant influence on wine quality, quantity and style. Improved knowledge of spatial and temporal variations in climate and their impact on grapevine response allows better decision-making to help maintain a sustainable wine industry in the context of medium to long term climate change. This paper describes recent research into the application of mesoscale weather and climate models that aims to improve our understanding of climate variability at high spatial (1 km and less) and temporal (hourly) resolution within vineyard regions of varying terrain complexity. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the weather and climate in the complex terrain of the Marlborough region of New Zealand. The performance of the WRF model in reproducing the temperature variability across vineyard regions is assessed through comparison with automatic weather stations. Coupling the atmospheric model with bioclimatic indices and phenological models (e.g. Huglin, cool nights, Grapevine Flowering Véraison model) also provides useful insights into grapevine response to spatial variability of climate during the growing season, as well as assessment of spatial variability in the optimal climate conditions for specific grape varieties.
With climate heating, Aotearoa New Zealand is expected to experience more marine heatwaves (MHW) in the coming decades. These extreme events are already impacting the island nation's marine and coastal environments and marine industries at a variety of scales. There will potentially be substantial benefits in developing an early warning system–specifically ocean seasonal forecast tools. This near-term 2,030 horizon scan reviews studies supporting the development of this capability and notes work needed to enable stakeholders to benefit from this knowledge. Review findings congregate around six themes; (1) MHW impacts, (2) mechanistic understanding, (3) observational basis, (4) seasonal forecast tools, (5) supporting Te Tiriti (The Treaty of Waitangi) and Māori aspirations, and (6) end-user engagement. The primary recommendation is a cross-institutional, cross-sector MHW Taskforce that would address, in a coordinated and effective fashion, the real, multi-faceted challenges associated with the committed pathway of warming. A range of sub-recommendations follow that connect with the United Nations Ocean Decade initiative.
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