Phillip Gienapp

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

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Marcel E. Visser

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

Veronika N. Laine

Finnish Museum of Natural History

Irene Verhagen

Wageningen University & Research

Kees van Oers

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

A. Christa Mateman

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

Agata Pijl

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

Tony D. Williams

Simon Fraser University

Jip J. C. Ramakers

Wageningen University & Research

Juha Merilä

University of Helsinki

Thomas E. Reed

University College Cork

Cooperative Institutions

Netherlands Institute of Ecology

Wageningen University & Research

University of Helsinki

Google (United States)

Universität Greifswald

University of Groningen

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences

University of Oxford

University of Edinburgh

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Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual

Journal of Evolutionary Biology (2019)

Jip J. C. Ramakers Marcel E. Visser Phillip Gienapp

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I × E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I × E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I × E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity.

Variation (astronomy)

10.1111/jeb.13571

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Citations (17)

Evolutionary dynamics in response to climate change

Oxford University Press eBooks (2014)

Phillip Gienapp Jon E. Brommer

Abstract Environmental changes lead to new or altered selection pressures and possibly also to changes in expressed genetic (co)variances. Understanding the resulting evolutionary dynamics is important for predicting possible negative impacts of environmental change for populations and species. Consequently, knowledge of how climate change affects selection and the genetic variation in important traits is crucial in this context. However, the molecular genetics of relevant traits potentially affected by climate change are currently not well known and quantitative genetic approaches offer a possibility to gain insight into this. The aim of this chapter is to illustrate how quantitative genetic approaches can be used to address these questions in the wild, for example by estimating phenotypic plasticity and genetic variation in relevant traits and also by disentangling genetic and phenotypic trends with the help of breeding values. This chapter provides an overview of current evidence as well as an outlook on possible future directions.

Quantitative Genetics

Evolutionary Dynamics

Environmental change

Variation (astronomy)

10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674237.003.0015

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Citations (47)

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better

Journal of Animal Ecology (2019)

Jip J. C. Ramakers Phillip Gienapp Marcel E. Visser

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue-and verify through simulations-that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments.

Proxy (statistics)

10.1111/1365-2656.13143

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Citations (22)

Climate change relaxes the time constraints for late-born offspring in a long-distance migrant

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences (2016)

Barbara M. Tomotani Phillip Gienapp Domien G. M. Beersma Marcel E. Visser

Animals in seasonal environments need to fit their annual-cycle stages, such as moult and migration, in a tight schedule. Climate change affects the phenology of organisms and causes advancements in timing of these annual-cycle stages but not necessarily at the same rates. For migratory birds, this can lead to more severe or more relaxed time constraints in the time from fledging to migration, depending on the relative shifts of the different stages. We tested how a shift in hatch date, which has advanced due to climate change, impacts the organization of the birds' whole annual cycle. We experimentally advanced and delayed the hatch date of pied flycatcher chicks in the field and then measured the timing of their annual-cycle stages in a controlled laboratory environment. Hatch date affected the timing of moult and pre-migratory fattening, but not migration. Early-born birds hence had a longer time to fatten up than late-born ones; the latter reduced their interval between onset of fattening and migration to be able to migrate at the same time as the early-born birds. This difference in time constraints for early- and late-born individuals may explain why early-born offspring have a higher probability to recruit as a breeding bird. Climate change-associated advancements of avian egg-lay dates, which in turn advances hatch dates, can thus reduce the negative fitness consequences of reproducing late, thereby reducing the selection for early egg-laying migratory birds.

Fledge

Annual cycle

Bird migration

10.1098/rspb.2016.1366

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Citations (25)

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird

Evolution (2018)

Jip J. C. Ramakers Phillip Gienapp Marcel E. Visser

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE ) and slope (RNS ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE , but not RNS , of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS . The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE was, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.

Directional selection

Songbird

Stabilizing selection

Disruptive selection

10.1111/evo.13660

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Citations (41)

Additional file 7: of Exploration of tissue-specific gene expression patterns underlying timing of breeding in contrasting temperature environments in a song bird

Figshare (2019)

Veronika N. Laine Irene Verhagen A. Christa Mateman Agata Pijl Tony D. Williams

Table S7. Significant GO terms associated with the time point - temperature interaction model gene clusters in hypothalamus. Results based on human GO-database. (XLSX 120 kb)

Expression (computer science)

10.6084/m9.figshare.9760406

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Citations (0)

Additional file 10: of Exploration of tissue-specific gene expression patterns underlying timing of breeding in contrasting temperature environments in a song bird

Figshare (2019)

Veronika N. Laine Irene Verhagen A. Christa Mateman Agata Pijl Tony D. Williams

Table S10. The genes from the super pathway â BMAL1-CLOCK, NPAS2 activates circadian gene expressionâ found in our time point main effect models and from the time point - temperature interaction model. (XLSX 10 kb)

Expression (computer science)

10.6084/m9.figshare.9760256

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THE RELEVANCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEPARTURE DECISION CHANGES EN ROUTE IN MIGRATING GEESE

Ecology (2008)

Silke Bauer Phillip Gienapp Jesper Madsen

The timing of life-cycle events crucially influences fitness, particularly in migratory birds, which visit chains of sites with varying seasonality. Here, we used a proportional hazards model to identify local environmental factors, which a long-distance migrant, the Pink-footed Goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), uses for departure decisions on multiple sites along its spring flyway from Denmark via Norway to Svalbard. Our results not only identified day length, local accumulated temperature, and their interaction as likely candidates, but also (more importantly) showed for the first time that their relevance changes en route. The results suggest that the birds switch on a "migratory program" in their wintering grounds, with day length providing general information on time of the year and integrated temperatures providing information on larger scale climate trends. Thereafter, on the stopover sites, local accumulated temperatures allow the geese to infer information on the advancement of spring, which is then used to adjust the speed of progressing northward.

Flyway

Anatidae

Seasonality

Relevance

10.1890/07-1101.1

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Citations (109)

Egg thyroid hormones: An unexplored mechanism for maternal effects in birds

Integrative and Comparative Biology (2017)

Suvi Ruuskanen T. G. G. Groothuis Veerle Darras Phillip Gienapp Sonja V. Schaper

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Citations (1)

A partial migrant relies upon a range-wide cue set but uses population-specific weighting for migratory timing

Movement Ecology (2021)

Nils Linek Paweł Brzęk Phillip Gienapp M. Teague O’Mara Ivan Pokrovsky

Many birds species range over vast geographic regions and migrate seasonally between their breeding and overwintering sites. Deciding when to depart for migration is one of the most consequential life-history decisions an individual may make. However, it is still not fully understood which environmental cues are used to time the onset of migration and to what extent their relative importance differs across a range of migratory strategies. We focus on departure decisions of a songbird, the Eurasian blackbird Turdus merula, in which selected Russian and Polish populations are full migrants which travel relatively long-distances, whereas Finnish and German populations exhibit partial migration with shorter migration distances.We used telemetry data from the four populations (610 individuals) to determine which environmental cues individuals from each population use to initiate their autumn migration.When departing, individuals in all populations selected nights with high atmospheric pressure and minimal cloud cover. Fully migratory populations departed earlier in autumn, at longer day length, at higher ambient temperatures, and during nights with higher relative atmospheric pressure and more supportive winds than partial migrants; however, they did not depart in higher synchrony. Thus, while all studied populations used the same environmental cues, they used population-specific and locally tuned thresholds to determine the day of departure.Our data support the idea that migratory timing is controlled by general, species-wide mechanisms, but fine-tuned thresholds in response to local conditions.

Animal ecology

Songbird

Bird migration

Overwintering

10.1186/s40462-021-00298-y

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Citations (12)