This paper describes a preliminary version of the small inflation model of Mongolia (SIMOM). The intended primary use of the model is analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and the inflation process in Mongolia, estimation of dynamic responses of selected variables to different shocks hitting the Mongolian economy as well as forecasting macroeconomic categories (e.g. exchange rate, output gap, inflation) over a medium term, consistent with the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism. Conclusions from the paper are the following: Mongolian inflation is driven by a large number of shocks, both internal and external. At the same time the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism is relatively weak (although stronger than previously perceived). The exchange rate channel seems to be the most important channel of monetary transmission mechanism in Mongolia.
This paper describes a preliminary version of the small inflation model of Mongolia (SIMOM). The intended primary use of the model is analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and the inflation process in Mongolia, estimation of dynamic responses of selected variables to different shocks hitting the Mongolian economy as well as forecasting macroeconomic categories (e.g. exchange rate, output gap, inflation) over a medium term, consistent with the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism.
Conclusions from the paper are the following: Mongolian inflation is driven by a large number of shocks, both internal and external. At the same time the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism is relatively weak (although stronger than previously perceived). The exchange rate channel seems to be the most important channel of monetary
transmission mechanism in Mongolia.
In this paper we have three principal objectives. First, we measure the bond market development in Mongolia. Second, we analyse in some detail the stock markets response to monetary policy actions using VAR (vector autoregression) analysis. Third, we study determinants (include monetary policy variables and other macro economic variables) of Mongolian bond market development using VAR analysis. We find that bond market in Mongolia remain underdeveloped compared to markets in Latin America, East Asia, developed countries and some countries of ESCAP Member States (Pakistan and Sri Lanka).The results also show that the macroeconomic stability and financial intermediary development is important predicators of bond market capitalisation, while the real income level and bond market liquidity does not prove significant.
In this paper we have three principal objectives. First, we measure the bond market development in Mongolia. Second, we analyse in some detail the stock markets response to monetary policy actions using VAR (vector autoregression) analysis. Third, we study determinants (include monetary policy variables and other macro economic variables) of Mongolian bond market development using VAR analysis. We find that bond market in Mongolia remain underdeveloped compared to markets in Latin America, East Asia, developed countries and some countries of ESCAP Member States (Pakistan and Sri Lanka).The results also show that the macroeconomic stability and financial intermediary development is important predicators of bond market capitalisation, while the real income level and bond market liquidity does not prove significant.
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