Kaplan–Meier analysis is a popular method used for analysing time-to-event data. In case of competing event analyses such as that of cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality, however, the Kaplan–Meier method profoundly overestimates the cumulative mortality probabilities for each of the separate causes of death. This article provides an introduction to the problem of competing events in Kaplan–Meier analysis. It explains cumulative incidence competing risk analysis and demonstrates on a cohort of elderly dialysis patients that, in contrast to the Kaplan–Meier method, application of this method yields unbiased estimates of the cumulative probabilities for cause-specific mortality.
Randomized clinical trials are expensive and time consuming. Therefore, strategies are needed to prioritise tracks for drug development. Genetic association studies may provide such a strategy by considering the differences between genotypes as a proxy for a natural, lifelong, randomized at conception, clinical trial. Previously an association with better survival was found in dialysis patients with systemic inflammation carrying a deletion variant of the CC-chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5). We hypothesized that in an analogous manner, pharmacological CCR5 blockade could protect against inflammation-driven mortality and estimated if such a treatment would be cost-effective.A genetic screen and treat strategy was modelled using a decision-analytic Markov model, in which patients were screened for the CCR5 deletion 32 polymorphism and those with the wild type and systemic inflammation were treated with pharmacological CCR5 blockers. Kidney transplantation and mortality rates were calculated using patient level data. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed.The cost-effectiveness of the genetic screen and treat strategy was &OV0556;18 557 per life year gained and &OV0556;21 896 per quality-adjusted life years gained. Concordance between the genetic association and pharmacological effectiveness was a main driver of cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses showed that even a modest effectiveness of pharmacological CCR5 blockade would result in a treatment strategy that is good value for money.Pharmacological blockade of the CCR5 receptor in inflamed dialysis patients can be incorporated in a potentially cost-effective screen and treat programme. These findings provide formal rationale for clinical studies. This study illustrates the potential of genetic association studies for drug development, as a source of Mendelian randomized evidence from an observational setting.
Summary Background and objectives We compared the decline of RRF in patients starting dialysis on APD with those starting on CAPD, because a faster decline on APD has been suggested. Design, setting, participants, & measurements NECOSAD patients starting dialysis on APD or CAPD with RRF at baseline were included and followed for 3 years. Residual GFR (rGFR) was the mean of urea and creatinine clearances. Differences in yearly decline of rGFR were estimated in analyses with linear repeated measures models, whereas the risk of complete loss of RRF was estimated by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) for APD compared with CAPD. As-treated (AT) and intention-to-treat (ITT) designs were used. All of the analyses were adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity, and primary kidney disease and stratified according to follow-up and mean baseline GFR. Results The 505 CAPD and 78 APD patients had no major baseline differences. No differences were found in the analyses on yearly decline of rGFR. APD patients did have a higher risk of losing RRF in the first year (ITT crude HR 2.43 [confidence interval 95%, 1.48 to 4.00], adjusted 2.66 [1.60 to 4.44]; AT crude 1.89 [1.04 to 3.45], adjusted 2.15 [1.16 to 3.98]). The higher risk of losing all RRF was most pronounced in patients with the highest rGFR at baseline (ITT; crude 3.91 [1.54 to 9.94], adjusted 1.85 to 14.17). Conclusions The risk of losing RRF is higher for patients starting dialysis on APD compared with those starting on CAPD, especially in the first year.
Functional variants in the IL6 gene, in particular the −174G/C polymorphism (rs1800795), affect the mortality risk in dialysis patients. Peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients harbouring the C allele of the −174G/C polymorphism of IL6 showed faster peritoneal transport. The aim of this study was to investigate this IL6 variant as risk factor for mortality and technique failure in a large cohort of Caucasian PD patients. A Dutch multicentre cohort of 398 incident PD patients (NECOSAD) was analysed. Survival analysis was performed for death and technique failure with a maximum follow-up of 5 years. A combined PD cohort from Amsterdam (Academic Medical Center, N = 71) and Brussels (Université catholique de Louvain Medical School, N = 102) was used for independent replication. In NECOSAD, 105 patients died on dialysis [incidence rate 10.3/100 person-years (py)], and 138 patients experienced technique failure (16.2/100 py), with peritonitis as important cause. Patients with the C/C genotype had a 71% increased mortality risk compared to patients with the G/G genotype (95% confidence interval 0.98–2.98); this effect was mainly a long-term effect: a 2.7-fold increased mortality risk was found in patients having survived 2 years since the start on dialysis, and a 1.7-fold increased risk for the combined end point (mortality or technique failure). In the combined replication cohort, no increased risks were found in patients with the C/C genotype. The C/C genotype of the −174G/C polymorphism was associated with an increased mortality risk in 398 Dutch incident PD patients. The existence of substantial differences between the two academic replication cohorts and the discovery cohort from NECOSAD and the limited power of these cohorts prevented an independent replication of the NECOSAD findings.
Objective Despite a lack of strong evidence, automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) is often prescribed on account of an expected better quality of life (QoL) than that expected with continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). Our aim was to analyze differences in QoL in patients starting dialysis on APD or on CAPD with a follow-up of 3 years. Methods Adult patients in the prospective NECOSAD cohort who started dialysis on APD or CAPD were included 3 months after the start of dialysis. The Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form 36 [SF-36 (Medical Outcomes Trust and QualityMetric, Lincoln, RI, USA)] and Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form [KDQOL-SF (KDQOL Working Group, Santa Monica, CA, USA)] questionnaires were used to measure QoL. Differences in QoL over time were calculated using linear mixed models. Patients were followed until transplantation, death, or a first switch to any other dialysis modality. Results The clinical and social characteristics of the 64 APD and 486 CAPD patients were slightly different at baseline. In the crude analysis, the pattern of the mental summary score differed between the modalities ( p = 0.03, adjusted p = 0.06), because of a different pattern for role function emotional ( p = 0.03, adjusted p = 0.05). The pattern of the physical summary score was not different between the groups. Scores on dialysis staff encouragement had a different pattern over time ( p = 0.01), because of an in-equality in scores 3 months after the start of dialysis, which disappeared after 18 months on dialysis. Over time, patients on APD scored higher on sexual function. After adjustment for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate, comorbidity, and primary kidney disease, that difference disappeared. This study showed no major differences in QoL on the KDQOL-SF and the SF-36 between the two modalities.
Genetic association studies are a means to investigate the causal role of genes in diseases in order to unravel pathways involved in the etiology of disease. There are two types of genetic association studies: hypothesis-driven studies, i.e. candidate gene studies, targeting genes with a known or presumed role in pathways or diseases of interest, and non-hypothesis-driven studies, i.e. genome-wide association studies, aiming for the discovery of new genetic associations. This educational article is an introduction to genetic association studies for nephrologists and researchers in the domain of kidney disease.
