Davide Fumagalli

Joint Research Centre

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Stefan Niemeyer

Joint Research Centre

Marcello Donatelli

Cereal Research Centre

Andrej Ceglar

Joint Research Centre

Andrea Toreti

Joint Research Centre

Alessandro Dosio

Joint Research Centre

Luc Feyen

Joint Research Centre

Giovanni Caudullo

Joint Research Centre

Liberta' Giorgio

Joint Research Centre

Daniele de Rigo

Arcadia

Alessandra Bianchi

Fincons Group (Italy)

Cooperative Institutions

Joint Research Centre

European Commission

Joint Research Center

Wageningen University & Research

Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement

Institute for Sustainability

University of Milan

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

European Union

V.V. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute

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New biological model to manage the impact of climate warming on maize corn borers

Agronomy for Sustainable Development (2013)

Andrea Maiorano Iacopo Cerrani Davide Fumagalli Marcello Donatelli

Overwintering

10.1007/s13593-013-0185-2

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Citations (15)

Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050

Hristov Jordan Andrea Toreti Perez Dominguez Ignacio Dentener Franciscus Thomas Fellmann

10.2760/121115

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Citations (33)

Crop2ML: An open-source multi-language modeling framework for the exchange and reuse of crop model components

Environmental Modelling & Software (2021)

Cyrille Ahmed Midingoyi Christophe Pradal Andreas Enders Davide Fumagalli Hélène Raynal

Process-based crop models are popular tools to analyze and simulate the response of agricultural systems to weather, agronomic, or genetic factors. They are often developed in modeling platforms to ensure their future extension and to couple different crop models with a soil model and a crop management event scheduler. The intercomparison and improvement of crop simulation models is difficult due to the lack of efficient methods for exchanging biophysical processes between modeling platforms. We developed Crop2ML, a modeling framework that enables the description and the assembly of crop model components independently of the formalism of modeling platforms and the exchange of components between platforms. Crop2ML is based on a declarative architecture of modular model representation to describe the biophysical processes and their transformation to model components that conform to crop modeling platforms. Here, we present Crop2ML framework and describe the mechanisms of import and export between Crop2ML and modeling platforms.

Modeling language

Simulation Modeling

Formalism (music)

10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105055

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Citations (13)

Comparison of modelling approaches to simulate the phenology of the European corn borer under future climate scenarios

Ecological Modelling (2012)

Andrea Maiorano Simone Bregaglio Marcello Donatelli Davide Fumagalli Antonio Zucchini

Ostrinia

European corn borer

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.034

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Citations (20)

Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

Environmental Research Letters (2015)

Marcello Donatelli Amit Kumar Srivastava Grégory Duveiller Stefan Niemeyer Davide Fumagalli

This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate scenarios is evident in most areas, the combination of rainfall patterns and increased photosynthesis efficiency due to CO2 concentrations showed possible improvements of production patterns in some areas, including Southern Europe. The uncertainty deriving from GCM realizations with respect to rainfall suggests that articulated and detailed testing of adaptation techniques would be redundant. Using ensemble simulations would allow for the identification of areas where adaptation, like those simulated, may be run autonomously by farmers, hence not requiring specific intervention in terms of support policies.

HadCM3

Representative Concentration Pathways

10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075005

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Citations (69)

Climate impacts in Europe

Ciscar Martinez Juan Carlos Ibarreta Ruiz Dolores Soria Ramirez Antonio Alessandro Dosio Andrea Toreti

10.2760/93257

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Citations (38)

Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (2014)

Juan-Carlos Ciscar Luc Feyen Antonio Soria C. Lavalle Frank Raes

The purpose of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights on the sectoral and regional pattern of the impacts of climate change in Europe by the end of this century. The assessment concerns both the biophysical and economic impacts of climate change. The study has as new elements a large set of impact categories (a total of ten: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health) and climate model simulations (a maximum of fifteen for some impact sectors). Six of those impacts are integrated into an economic setup (agriculture, energy, river floods, forest fires, transport infrastructure and coasts). This report details the main methodological aspects of the integrative project and discusses the main results, both in biophysical impact and economic impact terms.

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Citations (28)

Using reanalysis in crop monitoring and forecasting systems

Agricultural Systems (2018)

Andrea Toreti Andrea Maiorano Giacomo De Sanctis Heidi Webber Alex C. Ruane

Weather observations are essential for crop monitoring and forecasting but they are not always available and in some cases they have limited spatial representativeness. Thus, reanalyses represent an alternative source of information to be explored. In this study, we assess the feasibility of reanalysis-based crop monitoring and forecasting by using the system developed and maintained by the European Commission- Joint Research Centre, its gridded daily meteorological observations, the biased-corrected reanalysis AgMERRA and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. We focus on Europe and on two crops, wheat and maize, in the period 1980–2010 under potential and water-limited conditions. In terms of inter-annual yield correlation at the country scale, the reanalysis-driven systems show a very good performance for both wheat and maize (with correlation values higher than 0.6 in almost all EU28 countries) when compared to the observations-driven system. However, significant yield biases affect both crops. All simulations show similar correlations with respect to the FAO reported yield time series. These findings support the integration of reanalyses in current crop monitoring and forecasting systems and point to the emerging opportunities linked to the coming availability of higher-resolution reanalysis updated at near real time.

Crop simulation model

European commission

10.1016/j.agsy.2018.07.001

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Citations (46)

25 years of the WOFOST cropping systems model

Agricultural Systems (2018)

Allard de Wit Hendrik Boogaard Davide Fumagalli Sander Janssen Rob Knapen

The WOFOST cropping systems model has been applied operationally over the last 25 years as part of the MARS crop yield forecasting system. In this paper we provide an updated description of the model and reflect on the lessons learned over the last 25 years. The latter includes issues like system performance, model sensitivity, spatial model setup, parameterization and calibration approaches as well as software implementation and version management. Particularly for spatial model calibrations we provide experience and guidelines on how to execute calibrations and how to evaluate WOFOST model simulation results, particularly under conditions of limited field data availability. As an open source model WOFOST has been a success with at least 10 different implementations of the same concept. An overview is provided for those implementations which are managed by MARS or Wageningen groups. However, the proliferation of WOFOST implementations has also led to questions on the reproducibility of results from different implementations as is demonstrated with an example from MARS. In order to certify that the different WOFOST implementations and versions available can reproduce basic sets of inputs and outputs we make available a large set of test cases as appendix to this publication. Finally, new methodological extensions have been added to WOFOST in simulating the impact of nutrients limitations, extreme events and climate variability. Also, a difference is made in the operational and scientific versions of WOFOST with different licensing models and possible revenue generation. Capitalizing both on academic development as well as model testing in real-world situations will help to enable new applications of the WOFOST model in precision agriculture and smart farming.

Implementation

10.1016/j.agsy.2018.06.018

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Citations (335)

Enhancing Model Reuse via Component-Centered Modeling Frameworks: the Vision and Example Realizations

Marcello Donatelli Iacopo Cerrani Davide Fanchini Davide Fumagalli Andrea Emilio Rizzoli

Model frameworks have represented a substantial step forward with respect to monolithic implementations of biophysical models. However, the diffusion of such frameworks, as model development environment, beyond the groups developing them has been very modest. The reusability of models has also proved to be modest. The reason for the latter was attributed also to the lack of standardization toward few frameworks. Emphasis has been placed on the framework and even new implementations of models have been made targeting a specific framework, likely assuming that the reusability of the model unit would have been directly proportional to the quality of the framework. In any case, the goal of several projects has been to make available the framework. Developers in the operational arena, but even in research, have reacted by developing their own framework. Still, the problem of model reuse has been largely unsolved; estimating that increasing the flexibility for reuse would have added a costly overhead, in terms of both complexity and possibly as lack of efficiency in the operational use. The focus on frameworks has made software architects overlooking on the requirements of reusability per se of model units. The component oriented programming paradigm allows targeting intrinsic reusability of discrete model units, and makes room for enabling advances functionalities in simulation systems. This paper firstly present the abstract architecture of a component oriented framework articulated in independent layers: Model, Composition, and Configuration. The Application layer may link to any of these, to develop from simple console applications to sophisticated MVC applications. Proofs of concept are presented for each layer, including the BioMA framework of the European Commission used for agriculture and climate change studies.

Reusability

Implementation

Component (thermodynamics)

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Citations (17)