•Italy will have 4 million cancer survivors in 2030 (6.9% of the population), half diagnosed at least 10 years earlier.•From 2018 to 2030, the complete prevalence will increase by 1.5% per year.•As many as 7 out of 8 prevalent cases have the same life expectancy as the general population.•Ten years after diagnosis, 96% of survivors will not die from cancer.•Prevalence estimates are essential to improve consistent, data-driven cancer control planning. BackgroundThe number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.Materials and methodsData from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.ResultsA total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 − cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).ConclusionsStudy findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning. The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking. Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis. A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 − cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%). Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.
Abstract This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival, cure fraction, time to cure (when 5-year conditional net survival becomes > 95%), cure prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and already cured (living longer than time to cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121 704) of Italian women were alive after diagnosis of corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52 551) after cervical cancer, and 0.2% (52 153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (cure prevalence). Women with gynecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% at 5 years after diagnosis. The cure fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time to cure was ≤10 years for women with gynecological cancers aged <55 years; 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were already cured. These results can contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.
Nearly 50% of the world labour force is employed in agriculture. Over the last 50 years, agriculture has deeply changed with a massive utilisation of pesticides and fertilisers to enhance crop protection and production, food quality and food preservation. Pesticides are also increasingly employed for public health purposes and for domestic use. Pesticide are unique chemicals as they are intrinsically toxic for several biological targets, are deliberately spread into the environment, and their toxicity has a limited species selectivity. Pesticide toxicity depends on the compound family and is generally greater for the older compounds; in humans, they are responsible for acute poisonings as well as for long term health effects, including cancer and adverse effects on reproduction. Due to their intrinsic toxicity, in most countries a specific and complex legislation prescribes a thorough risk assessment process for pesticides prior to their entrance to the market (pre-marketing risk assessment). The post-marketing risk assessment takes place during the use of pesticides and aims at assessing the risk for exposed operators. The results of the risk assessment are the base for the health surveillance of exposed workers. Occupational exposure to pesticides in agriculture concerns product distributors, mixers and loaders, applicators, bystanders, and rural workers re-entering the fields shortly after treatment. Assessing and managing the occupational health risks posed by the use of pesticides in agriculture is a complex but essential task for occupational health specialists and toxicologists. In spite of the economic and social importance of agriculture, the health protection of agricultural workforce has been overlooked for too many years, causing an heavy tribute paid in terms of avoidable diseases, human sufferance, and economic losses. Particularly in the developing countries, where agricultural work is one of the predominant job, a sustainable model of development calls for more attention to occupational risks in agriculture. The experience of many countries has shown that prevention of health risk caused by pesticides is technically feasible and economically rewarding for the individuals and the whole community. A proper risk assessment and management of pesticide use is an essential component of this preventative
Abstract Background The number of patients living after a cancer diagnosis is increasing, especially after thyroid cancer (TC). This study aims at evaluating both the risk of a second primary cancer (SPC) in TC patients and the risk of TC as a SPC. Methods We analyzed two population‐based cohorts of individuals with TC or other neoplasms diagnosed between 1998 and 2012, in 28 Italian areas covered by population‐based cancer registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of SPC were stratified by sex, age, and time since first cancer. Results A total of 38,535 TC patients and 1,329,624 patients with other primary cancers were included. The overall SIR was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.12–1.21) for SPC in TC patients, though no increase was shown for people with follicular (1.06) and medullary (0.95) TC. SPC with significantly increased SIRs was bone/soft tissue (2.0), breast (1.2), prostate (1.4), kidney (2.2), and hemolymphopoietic (1.4) cancers. The overall SIR for TC as a SPC was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.42–1.55), similar for all TC subtypes, and it was significantly increased for people diagnosed with head and neck (2.1), colon–rectum (1.4), lung (1.8), melanoma (2.0), bone/soft tissue (2.8), breast (1.3), corpus uteri (1.4), prostate (1.5), kidney (3.2), central nervous system (2.3), and hemolymphopoietic (1.8) cancers. Conclusions The increased risk of TC after many other neoplasms and of few SPC after TC questions the best way to follow‐up cancer patients, avoiding overdiagnosis and overtreatment for TC and, possibly, for other malignancies.
Abstract Introduction Tumors of the central nervous system are among the leading causes of cancer-related death in children. Population-based cancer survival reflects the overall effectiveness of a health care system in managing cancer. Inequity in access to care world-wide may result in survival disparities. Methods We considered children (0–14 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor during 2000–2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a rigorous, three-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We implemented a revised version of the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (third edition) to control for under-registration of non-malignant astrocytic tumors. We estimated net survival using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator. Results The study included 67,776 children. We estimated survival for 12 histology groups, each based on relevant ICD-O-3 codes. Age-standardized 5-year net survival for low-grade astrocytoma ranged between 84% and 100% world-wide during 2000–2014. In most countries, 5-year survival was 90% or more during 2000–2004, 2005–2009, and 2010–2014. Global variation in survival for medulloblastoma was much wider, with age-standardized 5-year net survival between 47% and 86% for children diagnosed during 2010–2014. Conclusions To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors in children, by histology. We devised an enhanced version of ICCC-3 to account for differences in cancer registration practices world-wide. Our findings may have public health implications, because low-grade glioma is 1 of the 6 index childhood cancers included by WHO in the Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer.
Cancer survival in persons with AIDS (PWA) after introduction of antiretroviral therapies remains poorly characterized. The aim is to provide population-based estimates of cancer survival, overall and for the most important cancer types in PWA, and a comparison with persons without AIDS (non-PWA) affected by the same cancer.