Morgan Bazilian

Colorado School of Mines

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Mark Howells

Imperial College London

Benjamin K. Sovacool

Aarhus University

Dolf Gielen

World Bank Group

Manuel Welsch

International Atomic Energy Agency

D. J. Arent

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Holger Rogner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Steve Griffiths

American University of Sharjah

Patrick Nussbaumer

United Nations Industrial Development Organization

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Brian Ó Gallachóir

University College Cork

Jinsoo Kim

Kangwon National University

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory

102

Colorado School of Mines

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Stanford University

University of California, Berkeley

World Bank

University of Oxford

National Technical Information Service

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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The energy transitions index: An analytic framework for understanding the evolving global energy system

Energy Strategy Reviews (2019)

Harsh Vijay Singh Roberto Bocca Pedro Gómez Steve Dahlke Morgan Bazilian

The question of how to enable an effective, modern, global energy transition is garnering significant interest in both academic and policy making communities. Composite statistical indices have emerged as a useful class of tools to offer policymakers additional insights into the state and trajectory of energy transitions around the world. In this commentary, we discuss the purpose of energy indices in general and document several prominent examples. We then introduce and place in this landscape the World Economic Forum's Energy Transitions Index (ETI). The ETI is a tool for energy decision makers that strives to be a comprehensive, global index that tracks the performance of energy systems at the country level. It also incorporates macroeconomic, institutional, social, and geopolitical considerations that provide enabling conditions for an effective energy transition. In this way, the ETI enables a better understanding of the past and present states of energy transition around the world, leading to more informed energy transition policies and investment decisions.

Geopolitics

Energy transition

Investment

10.1016/j.esr.2019.100382

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Citations (126)

Optimality versus reality: Closing the gap between renewable energy decision models and government deployment in the United States

Energy Research & Social Science (2021)

Kate Anderson Maggie Nevrly Emma Elgqvist Morgan Bazilian

10.1016/j.erss.2021.102061

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Citations (8)

Energy Security prospects in Cyprus and Israel: A focus on Natural Gas

DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (2014)

Constantinos Taliotis Mark Howells Morgan Bazilian Hans‐Holger Rogner Manuel Welsch

The global production of natural gas has increased from 1226 bcm in 1973 to 3282 bcm in 2010 and is projected to continue rising by an annual growth rate of 1.6% between 2010 to 2035. Cyprus and Israel have recently made major offshore discoveries of natural gas, which can supply to a great extent the two countries’ current domestic energy needs for the next few decades and still export a substantial volume. MESSAGE, a global optimization model was used to explore the possible interactions between the two countries’ energy systems. Scenarios are presented that assess the export potential for electricity (generated by gas-fired power plants), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or gas-to-liquid products (GTL). The results are compared to a scenario without any available reserves to illustrate the financial benefits that will arise from the exploitation of the gas resources in the two countries.

Energy Security

10.5278/ijsepm.2014.3.2

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Citations (6)

Return on investment from industrial energy efficiency: evidence from developing countries

Energy Efficiency (2013)

Ludovico Alcorta Morgan Bazilian Giuseppe De Simone Ascha Pedersen

Investment

Energy Security

Payback period

Rate of return

10.1007/s12053-013-9198-6

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Citations (37)

Power Systems of the Future

The Electricity Journal (2015)

Owen Zinaman Mackay Miller Ali Adil D. J. Arent Jaquelin Cochran

10.1016/j.tej.2015.02.006

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Citations (25)

Pandemic disruptions in energy and the environment

Elementa Science of the Anthropocene (2020)

Dustin Mulvaney Joshua W. Busby Morgan Bazilian

Public health measures implemented during the coronavirus pandemic have had significant global impacts on energy systems. Some changes may be ephemeral: as industries go back to work and supply chains relink once production resumes, energy use and emissions have and will continue to rebound. Some may be more durable, such as reductions in commuter and business travel and increases in teleworking. The crisis has exposed the persistent vulnerability of communities of color and those living in poverty, as well as highlighting weaknesses in just-in-time production systems and inequities of supply chains. The social and policy response to the societal impacts of the coronavirus crisis will affect energy systems and the environment in complex and dynamic ways over the long run. Strategic policy responses by nations, communities, organizations, and individuals could go a long way toward reshaping energy systems and impacts on communities and the environment. Here, we highlight themes for continued investigation and research into socioecological interactions between the Great Lockdown and pathways for recovery with a focus on energy systems and the environment.

Vulnerability

Pandemic

10.1525/elementa.052

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Citations (14)

Oil Prices and their Impact on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions

David McCollum Jessica Jewell Volker Krey Morgan Bazilian Marianne Fay

Oil prices took a dramatic plunge starting in late 2014 and have remained low ever since. Combined with parallel developments in natural gas supply, this plunge has prompted questions regarding what the “new normal” might mean for energy markets. Will falling oil and gas prices damage the business case for mitigation technologies, such as renewables? Will they stymie incentives to invest in energy efficiency? How do cheaper oil and gas change the outlook for coal and nuclear? Does this spell bad news for efforts to mitigate climate change? While many have weighed in on these questions, no scientific studies have yet addressed them, at least not since the most recent drop in oil prices. A number of economic analyses have studied the very near-term impacts of oil price shocks; meanwhile, scenarios have explored diverging futures where oil prices vary along with multiple other drivers. As yet, however, there has been no explicit and systematic assessment of the longer-term consequences of different oil price futures for global CO2 emissions. Here we present work using the MESSAGE integrated assessment model, wherein we develop and analyze scenarios with wide-ranging price assumptions that are in line with recent market fluctuations. We find that whether oil prices are stubbornly low or consistently high for decades will have a moderate impact on global emissions and society’s ability to mitigate climate change, even though the fuel mix would look quite different in these alternative futures.

Peak Oil

Natural gas prices

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Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

MDPI eBooks (2020)

Alexandros Korkovelos Dimitrios Mentis Morgan Bazilian Mark Howells Anwar Saraj

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

Rural Electrification

10.1596/33464

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Citations (4)

A GIS-based approach for electrification planning—A case study on Nigeria

Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development (2015)

Dimitrios Mentis Manuel Welsch Francesco Fuso Nerini Oliver Broad Mark Howells

Energy planning

Rural Electrification

10.1016/j.esd.2015.09.007

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Citations (113)

VIDEO: Session Four: Access to Energy

Morgan Bazilian Frank Barnes Corinne Hart

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