Ryna Cui

University of Maryland, College Park

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Trends

Author Order

Document Type

Co-Authors

Sha Yu

Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Alicia Zhao

University of Maryland, College Park

Nathan Hultman

University of Maryland, College Park

Haewon McJeon

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

Gokul Iyer

University of Maryland, College Park

Jae Edmonds

Joint Global Change Research Institute

Bas van Ruijven

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Elmar Kriegler

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Leon Clarke

University of Maryland, College Park

Christoph Bertram

University of Maryland, College Park

Cooperative Institutions

University of Maryland, College Park

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Joint Global Change Research Institute

University Research Co (United States)

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Tsinghua University

ORCID

Leibniz Association

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Field

Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints

Nature Climate Change (2024)

Christoph Bertram Elina Brutschin Laurent Drouet Gunnar Luderer Bas van Ruijven

Abstract Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.

Limiting

Benchmark (surveying)

Overshoot (microwave communication)

10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4

Cite

Citations (5)

Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution

Environmental Research Letters (2021)

Mathijs Harmsen Elmar Kriegler Detlef P. van Vuuren Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst Gunnar Luderer

Abstract Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend.

Comparability

10.1088/1748-9326/abf964

Cite

Citations (58)

Trade and Climate Mitigation Interactions Create Agro‐Economic Opportunities With Social and Environmental Trade‐Offs in Latin America and the Caribbean

Earth s Future (2023)

Brinda Yarlagadda Thomas Wild Xin Zhao Leon Clarke Ryna Cui

Abstract The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region plays key roles in both meeting global agricultural demands and maintaining carbon sinks due to its abundant land and water resources. In this study we use the Global Change Analysis Model to evaluate the opportunities and challenges posed by two global‐scale drivers: agricultural market integration (i.e., reduction of trade barriers) and land‐based climate mitigation policy. We evaluate their potential individual and combined impacts on agricultural production and trade revenues across LAC's economies through mid‐century, as well as the resulting impacts on agricultural consumers and integrated land‐water‐climate systems across LAC's diverse sub‐regions. Increased global market integration results in increased agricultural production and trade revenues for many LAC economies, driven by their evolving comparative advantages. Climate mitigation measures on CO 2 and non‐CO 2 greenhouse gases increase revenues due to increased agricultural prices from land competition and emissions abatement. The combined outcomes from both drivers are complex and sometimes non‐linear, highlighting the importance of understanding the interactions between multiple drivers. Our results show that increased agricultural production and trade opportunities, from either of the two drivers, pose significant trade‐offs that require careful multi‐sectoral planning, such as emissions reduction challenges, potential loss of livestock production when pursuing land‐based climate mitigation strategies, increased consumer expenditures, and changes in land‐use or water withdrawals, resulting in deforestation or water scarcity pressures. There is considerable heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes across LAC sub‐regions and agricultural commodities, illustrating the value of considering outcomes at finer scales.

Agricultural land

Scarcity

Deforestation

10.1029/2022ef003063

Cite

Citations (10)

United States and China Methane Emissions: Review, Contrast and Opportunities for Measurement Improvement

Authorea (Authorea) (2024)

Jenna Behrendt Steven J. Smith Sha Yu Shiqi Chen Haiwen Zhang

Methane mitigation, especially in the near-term, is critical for meeting global climate goals. The U.S. and China, as two of the largest global methane emitters, will play a significant role in global mitigation efforts through national methane emissions reduction, as well as by collaborating on key methane topics, as outlined in recent joint statements issued by both countries. Current methane emission estimates are highly uncertain, given that methane emission factors (i.e. the emissions intensity of different activities) are highly dependent on local conditions. This analysis evaluated around 50 estimates of methane emissions in the U.S. and China across all major sectors to identify areas of uncertainty and highlight opportunities for cross-country collaboration. Shared sources of emissions with high uncertainty include waste and livestock emissions, as well as abandoned fossil production sites (coal mines and oil wells), which present opportunities for knowledge sharing and joint leadership. Key areas for collaboration include improving data collection, monitoring and availability to develop more detailed emission factors that take into account local conditions and temporal sources of emissions. The U.S. and China can jointly collaborate on developing a transparent, multi-scale approach to emissions inventory development and mechanism for integrating multiple methodologies into national emissions estimates, to improve accuracy of emissions estimates and better inform mitigation strategies and policy discussions.

Methane Emissions

10.22541/essoar.172900721.17053844/v1

Cite

Citations (0)

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2 degrees C? Increased ambition and implementation are essential

Science (2021)

Yang Ou Gokul Iyer Leon Clarke Jae Edmonds Allen A. Fawcett

Warming up

Source

Cite

Citations (0)

A Provincial Analysis on Wind and Solar Investment Needs Towards China's Carbon Neutrality

Jiehong Lou Sha Yu Ryna Cui Andy Miller Nathan Hultman

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add Paper to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access to this page indefinitely Copy URL Copy DOI

Neutrality

Investment

Carbon neutrality

10.2139/ssrn.4691516

Cite

Citations (0)

A Provincial Analysis on Wind and Solar Investment Needs Towards China's Carbon Neutrality

Jiehong Lou Sha Yu Ryna Cui Andy Miller Nathan Hultman

Accelerating the deployment of renewable energy renewable energy (RE) is one of the most important strategies to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal in China. In this context, it is crucial to understand the RE investment needs at the provincial level to better allocate resources and develop policies to facilitate RE development and deployment at the local level. In this paper, we estimate the wind and solar investment needs by Chinese provinces between 2020 and 2060 under four alternative pathways towards China’s 2060 carbon neutrality, by using a global integrated assessment model with provincial details of China combined with the most updated cost data for each province, and explicitly considering national and local investment market conditions. Results show that the average annual wind and solar investment needs are $317 billion per year between 2020 and 2060, or 2.3 percent of China’s 2020 GDP. We find large spatial and temporal variations of the needed RE investment and identify that technologies, resource endowment, and financial conditions are the three primary contributions to the regional disparity in investment needs. Our findings explore distributional and inequality implications and associated needs required to achieve a harmonious development pathway that meets diverse needs.

Neutrality

Investment

Carbon neutrality

10.2139/ssrn.4477714

Cite

Citations (1)

The role of electrification and the power sector in U.S. carbon neutrality

Energy and Climate Change (2024)

Kowan T.V. O'Keefe Gokul Iyer Kathleen M. Kennedy Yang Ou Alicia Zhao

The United States has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. We examine a series of net-zero CO2 scenarios to investigate the impact of advanced electrification of end-use sectors on the dynamics of America's net-zero transition through 2050. Specifically, we use an integrated assessment model, GCAM-USA, to explore how advanced electrification can influence the evolution of the electricity system in pursuit of net-zero. State-level resolution for end-use demand sectors and energy transformation is a key feature of GCAM-USA that allows for elucidation of the variation in end-use electrification across states. All scenarios in this study are designed to be consistent with the modeling protocol for the Energy Modeling Forum Study 37 model inter-comparison project. Our scenarios show the scale of transformation in the power sector with average annual capacity additions reaching 121-143 GW/year and 172-190 GW/year in 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios and 2045 net-zero CO2 scenarios, respectively, in the 2040s — approximately three to five times the 2021-2023 average. In 2050 net-zero CO2 scenarios, electrification rates in 2050 range from 15-48% for transportation, 65-83% for buildings, and 20-38% for industry. If net-zero CO2 is achieved in 2045, transportation, buildings, and industry are 27-53%, 78-84%, and 41-53% electrified by 2050, respectively. Advanced electrification of end-use sectors can reduce the magnitude of reliance on negative emissions by driving down residual positive emissions by mid-century. Altogether, our results demonstrate that a net-zero transition in the United States will require deep and rapid structural changes to the energy system.

Carbon neutrality

Baseline (sea)

Zero emission

10.1016/j.egycc.2024.100155

Cite

Citations (1)

Coal transitions—part 2: phase-out dynamics in global long-term mitigation scenarios

Environmental Research Letters (2024)

Jan C. Minx Jérôme Hilaire Finn Müller-Hansen Gregory F. Nemet Francesca Diluiso

Abstract A rapid phase-out of unabated coal use is essential to limit global warming to below 2 °C. This review presents a comprehensive assessment of coal transitions in mitigation scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement, using data from more than 1500 publicly available scenarios generated by more than 30 integrated assessment models. Our ensemble analysis uses clustering techniques to categorize coal transition pathways in models and bridges evidence on technological learning and innovation with historical data of energy systems. Six key findings emerge: First, we identify three archetypal coal transitions within Paris-consistent mitigation pathways. About 38% of scenarios are ‘coal phase out’ trajectories and rapidly reduce coal consumption to near zero. ‘Coal persistence’ pathways (42%) reduce coal consumption much more gradually and incompletely. The remaining 20% follow ‘coal resurgence’ pathways, characterized by increased coal consumption in the second half of the century. Second, coal persistence and resurgence archetypes rely on the widespread availability and rapid scale-up of carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Third, coal-transition archetypes spread across all levels of climate policy ambition and scenario cycles, reflecting their dependence on model structures and assumptions. Fourth, most baseline scenarios—including the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs)—show much higher coal dependency compared to historical observations over the last 60 years. Fifth, coal-transition scenarios consistently incorporate very optimistic assumptions about the cost and scalability of CCS technologies, while being pessimistic about the cost and scalability of renewable energy technologies. Sixth, evaluation against coal-dependent baseline scenarios suggests that many mitigation scenarios overestimate the technical difficulty and costs of coal phase-outs. To improve future research, we recommend using up-to-date cost data and evidence about innovation and diffusion dynamics of different groups of zero or low-carbon technologies. Revised SSP quantifications need to incorporate projected technology learning and consistent cost structures, while reflecting recent trends in coal consumption.

Baseline (sea)

Energy transition

10.1088/1748-9326/ad24cd

Cite

Citations (10)

HOW MUCH COULD ARTICLE 6 ENHANCE NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION AMBITION TOWARD PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS THROUGH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY?

Climate Change Economics (2021)

Jae Edmonds Sha Yu Haewon McJeon Dirk Forrister Joseph E. Aldy

The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2 ° C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by [Formula: see text]$[Formula: see text], which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO 2 /year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO 2 /year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

10.1142/s201000782150007x

Cite

Citations (25)