Kerryn Little

University of Birmingham

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Trends

Author Order

Document Type

Co-Authors

Cathelijne R. Stoof

Wageningen University & Research

Laura J. Graham

University of Birmingham

Santiago Monedero

Pacific Southwest Research Station

Nicholas Kettridge

University of Birmingham

Sergio de‐Miguel

Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia

Victor Mario Tapia

Universitat de Lleida

Katy Ivison

Durham University

Adrián Cardíl

Universitat de Lleida

Nicholas Kettridge

University of Birmingham

Dante Castellanos‐Acuña

University of Alberta

Cooperative Institutions

University of Birmingham

University of Alberta

Universitat de Lleida

European University Cyprus

University of Cyprus

Forest Research

Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia

University of Otago

University College London

University of Manchester

Author Statistics

Papers

Citation

H-Index

i-10 index

Research Field

Data and code for landscape fuel moisture manuscript analyses, published Fire Ecology 2024

Figshare (2024)

Kerryn Little

Data and code used in the presentation of this manuscript published by Fire Ecology in 2024.Data includes:Field collected fuel moisture data and site attributes: fmc_allMicrometeorological and landscape factors used to model landscape controls on fuel moisture: met_fmc_landscape & lm_metVariance outputs from models used in deviance partition plots: variance_R2 & variance_labelsCode includes:Fuel moisture models: landscape_fmc_2024_models.RDeviance partition code: landscape_fmc_2024_deviance-partitioning.RSpatial autocorrelation tests: testing spatial autocorrelation.R

Code (set theory)

10.6084/m9.figshare.25041644

Cite

Citations (0)

Persistent positive anomalies in geopotential height drive enhanced wildfire activity across Europe

Kerryn Little Dante Castellanos‐Acuña Piyush Jain Laura J. Graham Nicholas Kettridge

Persistent positive anomalies in 500 hPa geopotential height (PPAs) are upper-air circulation patterns associated with surface heatwaves, drought, and consequently fuel aridity, elevated fire weather, and active wildfires. We examined the association between PPA events and surface fire weather and burned area at a pan-European level. Europe-wide, extreme fire weather and wildfires were on average 3.5 and 2.3 times more likely to occur concurrently with a PPA, respectively. PPAs were associated with 43% of pan-European area burned between March and October 2001–2021, and there was a latitudinal increase in the percentage of area burned during PPAs up to 60% over Northern Europe. Burned area was highest in the three days following PPA presence, and fuel moisture indices from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System lagged behind peak PPA strength, demonstrating the role of PPAs in pre-drying fuels. PPAs have been associated with significant wildfire events experienced across Europe, including the 2017 Portugal wildfires, the 2018 UK, Sweden, and Finland wildfires, and the 2021 Greece wildfires. Our findings demonstrate opportunities for developing early warning systems of wildfire danger, having implications for wildfire awareness and preparedness, informing policy, and wildfire management decisions like early mobilisation and resource sharing initiatives within and across Europe.

Geopotential height

Geopotential

10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11570

Cite

Citations (0)

A global outlook on increasing wildfire risk: Current policy situation and future pathways

Trees Forests and People (2023)

Pooja Pandey Gabriela Huidobro Luís Filipe Lopes Anne Ganteaume Davide Ascoli

to understand how wildfire risk policies are designed to mitigate1 the impacts of wildfires. Wildfires are a growing threat in many parts of the world, posing significant risks to human life, and the environment. In recent years, wildfires have increased, driven largely by climate change, human activity, and changes in land-use patterns. Wildfire risk adaptation and mitigation measures vary widely between countries and regions around the world. Therefore, it is essential to develop a comprehensive policy approach to mitigate wildfire risks and promote sustainable forest and land management practices. This article aims to provide insight into wildfire policies, implementation actions, and their effectiveness by describing wildfire policies centered mainly on exclusion and wildfire risk mitigation. the article examines existing wildfire-related policies and relevant literature based on 10 systematic factors. Further exploring how these policies can be enhanced to meet the challenges of the coming years for six European countries (Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, UK) as well as Australia, Canada, USA, and South Africa. The status quo, perceived strengths, weaknesses, and recommendations from key-informants were presented to enhance wildfire policies in each country. The article analyses current wildfire policies in fire-prone countries, highlighting regional variations and the need for an integrated management strategy. It offers country-specific recommendations based on the participants viewpoints, for coordinated efforts to mitigate wildfire risks and promote sustainable forest management.

Viewpoints

Sustainable Forest Management

10.1016/j.tfp.2023.100431

Cite

Citations (30)

Characterizing the rate of spread of large wildfires in emerging fire environments of northwestern Europe using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire data

Natural hazards and earth system sciences (2023)

Adrián Cardíl Victor Mario Tapia Santiago Monedero Tomás Quiñones Kerryn Little

Abstract. In recent years fires of greater magnitude have been documented throughout northwest Europe. With several climate projections indicating future increases in fire activity in this temperate area, it is imperative to identify the status of fire in this region. This study unravels unknowns about the state of the fire regime in northwest Europe by characterizing one of the key aspects of fire behavior, the rate of spread (ROS). Using an innovative approach to cluster Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) hotspots into fire perimeter isochrones to derive ROS, we identify the effects of land cover and season on the rate of spread of 102 landscape fires that occurred between 2012 and 2022. Results reveal significant differences between land cover types, and there is a clear peak of ROS and burned area in the months of March and April. Median ROS within these peak months is approximately 0.09 km h−1 during a 12 h overpass, and 66 % of the burned area occurs in this spring period. Heightened ROS and burned area values persist in the bordering months of February and May, suggesting that these months may present the extent of the main fire season in northwest Europe. Accurate data on ROS among the represented land cover types, as well as periods of peak activity, are essential for determining periods of elevated fire risk, the effectiveness of available suppression techniques, and appropriate mitigation strategies (land and fuel management).

Land Cover

10.5194/nhess-23-361-2023

Cite

Citations (15)

Comment on nhess-2022-47

Victor Mario Tapia Santiago Monedero Kerryn Little Sergio de‐Miguel Cathelijne R. Stoof

In recent years fires of greater magnitude have been documented throughout northwest Europe, and with several climate projections indicating future increases in fire activity in this temperate area, it is imperative to identify the status of fire in this region. This study unravels important unknowns about the state of the fire regime in northwest Europe by characterizing one of the key aspects of fire behavior, the rate of spread (ROS). Using an innovative approach to cluster VIIRS hotspots into fire perimeter isochrones to derive ROS, we identify the effects of land cover and season on fire rate of spread of 254 landscape fires that occurred between 2012 and 2020. Results reveal no significant differences between land cover types and there is a clear peak of ROS and burned area in the months of April and May. During this late spring period, 67 % of the burned area occurs and median fire runs are approximately 0.16 km/hr during a 12 hour overpass. Heightened ROS and burned area values persist in the bordering months of March and June suggesting that may present the extent of the fire season in northwestern Europe. Accurate data on ROS among the represented land cover types as well as periods of peak activity are essential for determining periods of elevated fire risk, the effectiveness of available suppression techniques as well as appropriate mitigation strategies (land and fuel management).

Land Cover

Fire regime

10.5194/nhess-2022-47-rc1

Cite

Citations (0)

Landscape factors can improve the predictive ability of fuel moisture models for assessing wildfire risk

Research Square (Research Square) (2024)

Katy Ivison Laura J. Graham Kerryn Little Alice Orpin Nicholas Kettridge

Abstract Background: Fuel moisture content (FMC) is a critical component of wildfire risk. The spatiotemporal patterns of FMC of many key temperate fuels (e.g. heather, gorse, bracken, moor grass, litter, organic soil layer) are largely unknown and unravelling the drivers of FMC is challenging. Current models designed to predict FMC, principally of dead fuels, generally consider only weather variables. However, landscape factors affect water retention and availability of moisture within soils, and are likely to influence FMC of live and organic ground fuels. We investigate the potential effects of landscape factors on FMC. We carried out a large-scale fuel sampling campaign from 2021–2023 of eighteen different fuel types across 43 sites through five different climate regions of the UK. We implemented boosted regression trees to determine the influence of fifteen variables on FMC, which included weather, temporal, and landscape data. Results: We found that landscape influences FMC, particularly for the organic ground fuels, live bracken and live moor grass. Dead fuels were generally influenced least by landscape factors. The predictive ability of our models was good (mean correlation between predicted and observed FMC of > 0.5) in twelve of eighteen fuels and for most fuels, including landscape factors increased the variance in FMC explained. Predictive ability was greater in models including landscape factors (compared with models just containing weather and temporal variables) for live fuels, litter and the organic layer. For dead fuels, moss and twigs, including landscape factors did not increase the models’ predictive ability. Conclusions: We have shown that landscape factors are important to consider when developing fuel moisture models, but that this is mainly important for live fuels and organic ground fuels. We therefore recommend tailoring models to each fuel type to yield the best performance.

Predictive modelling

10.21203/rs.3.rs-4143610/v1

Cite

Citations (0)

Supplementary material to "Extreme blocking ridges are associated with large wildfires in England"

Kerryn Little Dante Castellanos‐Acuña Nicholas Kettridge Mike Flannigan Piyush Jain

Blocking (statistics)

10.5194/nhess-2024-161-supplement

Cite

Citations (0)

Landscape controls on fuel moisture variability in fire-prone heathland and peatland landscapes

Fire Ecology (2024)

Kerryn Little Laura J. Graham Mike Flannigan Claire M. Belcher Nicholas Kettridge

Abstract Background Cross-landscape fuel moisture content is highly variable but not considered in existing fire danger assessments. Capturing fuel moisture complexity and its associated controls is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and danger in emerging fire-prone environments that are influenced by local heterogeneity. This is particularly true for temperate heathland and peatland landscapes that exhibit spatial differences in the vulnerability of their globally important carbon stores to wildfire. Here we quantified the range of variability in the live and dead fuel moisture of Calluna vulgaris across a temperate fire-prone landscape through an intensive fuel moisture sampling campaign conducted in the North Yorkshire Moors, UK. We also evaluated the landscape (soil texture, canopy age, aspect, and slope) and micrometeorological (temperature, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, and windspeed) drivers of landscape fuel moisture variability for temperate heathlands and peatlands for the first time. Results We observed high cross-landscape fuel moisture variation, which created a spatial discontinuity in the availability of live fuels for wildfire spread (fuel moisture < 65%) and vulnerability of the organic layer to smoldering combustion (fuel moisture < 250%). This heterogeneity was most important in spring, which is also the peak wildfire season in these temperate ecosystems. Landscape and micrometeorological factors explained up to 72% of spatial fuel moisture variation and were season- and fuel-layer-dependent. Landscape factors predominantly controlled spatial fuel moisture content beyond modifying local micrometeorology. Accounting for direct landscape–fuel moisture relationships could improve fuel moisture estimates, as existing estimates derived solely from micrometeorological observations will exclude the underlying influence of landscape characteristics. We hypothesize that differences in soil texture, canopy age, and aspect play important roles across the fuel layers examined, with the main differences in processes arising between live, dead, and surface/ground fuels. We also highlight the critical role of fuel phenology in assessing landscape fuel moisture variations in temperate environments. Conclusions Understanding the mechanisms driving fuel moisture variability opens opportunities to develop locally robust fuel models for input into wildfire danger rating systems, adding versatility to wildfire danger assessments as a management tool.

10.1186/s42408-024-00248-0

Cite

Citations (5)

Extreme weather breaks phenological and landscape controls on temperate peatland fuel moisture; implications for carbon stock release through changing wildfire regimes

Katy Ivison Kerryn Little Laura J. Graham Nicholas Kettridge

Temperate peatlands and heathlands are at increasing risk of severe wildfires under future climates which may combust legacy carbon stocks. The moisture content of the different fuel layers determines the threat posed. The controls on fuel moisture and their response to extreme weather have previously been unknown. Here, we show that controls differ between fuel layers. Fine dead fuel moisture is dominated by weather, live fuel by temporal controls including season and phenology, and soil organics by elevation and soil type. This separation of controls in time and space produces a landscape resistance to severe wildfire. However, extreme weather events break the phenological control on live fuel moisture and the landscape control of organics, resulting in low moisture content across all fuel types. This leads to the most severe conditions for fire ignition, spread and impact in traditionally non-fire prone regions, producing a landscape susceptible to severe environmental impacts and carbon emissions within a new summer wildfire regime.

Stock (firearms)

10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11396

Cite

Citations (0)

Characterizing the Rate of Spread of Wildfires in Emerging Fire Environments of Northwestern Europe

Victor Mario Tapia Santiago Monedero Kerryn Little Sergio de‐Miguel Cathelijne R. Stoof

Abstract. In recent years fires of greater magnitude have been documented throughout northwest Europe, and with several climate projections indicating future increases in fire activity in this temperate area, it is imperative to identify the status of fire in this region. This study unravels important unknowns about the state of the fire regime in northwest Europe by characterizing one of the key aspects of fire behavior, the rate of spread (ROS). Using an innovative approach to cluster VIIRS hotspots into fire perimeter isochrones to derive ROS, we identify the effects of land cover and season on fire rate of spread of 254 landscape fires that occurred between 2012 and 2020. Results reveal no significant differences between land cover types and there is a clear peak of ROS and burned area in the months of April and May. During this late spring period, 67 % of the burned area occurs and median fire runs are approximately 0.16 km/hr during a 12 hour overpass. Heightened ROS and burned area values persist in the bordering months of March and June suggesting that may present the extent of the fire season in northwestern Europe. Accurate data on ROS among the represented land cover types as well as periods of peak activity are essential for determining periods of elevated fire risk, the effectiveness of available suppression techniques as well as appropriate mitigation strategies (land and fuel management).

Land Cover

Fire regime

10.5194/nhess-2022-47

Cite

Citations (2)