Joshy Easaw

Cardiff University

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i-10 index

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Co-Authors

Saeed Heravi

Cardiff University

Roberto Golinelli

University of Bologna

Atanu Ghoshray

Newcastle University

Dean Garratt

Nottingham Trent University

Antonio Savoia

University of Manchester

Huw David Dixon

Cardiff University

Adalgiso Amendola

University of Salerno

Christian Grimme

Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Marco Malgarini

Italian National Agency for the Evaluation of Universities and Research Institutes

David J. Smyth

Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg

Cooperative Institutions

Cardiff University

University of Reading

University of York

Middlesex University

Manchester Metropolitan University

University of Bath

Centre for Economic Policy Research

Center for Economic and Policy Research

University of Wales

His Majesty's Treasury

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Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modeling? An empirical investigation

Economic Modelling (2022)

Jen-Yu Chou Joshy Easaw Patrick Minford

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical performance of the standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in its usual form with full-information rational expectations and compare it with versions assuming inattentiveness—namely sticky information and imperfect information data revision. Using a Bayesian estimation approach on US quarterly data (both real-time and survey) from 1969 to 2015, we find that the model with sticky information fits best and is the only one that can generate the delayed responses observed in the data. The imperfect information data revision model is improved fits better when survey data is used in place of real-time data, suggesting that it contains extra information.

Perfect information

New Keynesian economics

Bayes estimator

Bayesian information criterion

Survey data collection

10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106076

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Citations (3)

REGULATION POLICY AND COMPETITIVE PROCESS IN THE UK CONTRACT GAS MARKET: A THEORETICAL ANALYSIS

PUBLISHED BY IMPERIAL COLLEGE PRESS AND DISTRIBUTED BY WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBLISHING CO. eBooks (2000)

Huw David Dixon Joshy Easaw

10.1142/9781848160293_0009

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Citations (2)

Inequality in developing economies: the role of institutional development

Public Choice (2011)

Adalgiso Amendola Joshy Easaw Antonio Savoia

Investment

10.1007/s11127-011-9838-3

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Citations (52)

Unemployment hysteresis and the NAIRU: a ratchet model

Applied Economics Letters (2001)

David J. Smyth Joshy Easaw

Abstract In the 1970s and 1980s the USA and European economies experienced unemployment rates that persistently drifted upwards. The present paper captures this phenomenon by a simple extension of the hysteresis approach to the natural rate hypothesis of unemployment using a ratchet model. The impact of peak unemployment levels on unemployment hysteresis is incorporated using a traditional ratchet model. The model is estimated for the USA economy for the period 1948 to 1998. The results indicate that the relationship approximates a full hysteresis effect for peak-to-peak unemployment levels.

Hysteresis

NAIRU

Ratchet effect

10.1080/135048501750237775

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Citations (15)

Inequality, Democracy, and Institutions: A Critical Review of Recent Research

SSRN Electronic Journal (2010)

Antonio Savoia Joshy Easaw Andrew D. McKay

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of economic and political inequality on institutions. The current understanding suggests that unequal societies develop exploitative and inefficient institutions. Empirical research - which is scant, and has mainly concentrated at cross-national level - supports, to some extent, the existence of an inverse relationship between inequality and institutions, but more analysis is needed. Future empirical research should undertake country, state, and micro-level analysis, which are a necessary complement to aggregate level studies. The effect of inequality could also take place indirectly, through the influence of inequality on democratization.

Empirical Research

Complement

Source

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Citations (3)

Public opinion as nowcast: consistency and the role of news uncertainty

Journal of Mathematical Sociology (2020)

Joshy Easaw Saeed Heravi

The purpose of this note is to consider the effect of perception noise when voters form public opinions. We provide a simple theoretical framework that will form the basis to investigate empirically the effect of news uncertainty on voters’ attentiveness when forming public opinion, or nowcasts. An attentive voter will consistently update their information set. Therefore, if voters’ nowcasts are consistent, any revision of the nowcasts must only reflect new information. We specifically consider how news uncertainty may affect voter attentiveness. The paper focuses on US presidential competence and popularity indices. We find that the nowcasts are consistent during periods of low news uncertainty but highly persistent when news uncertainty is high.

10.1080/0022250x.2020.1732371

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Citations (1)

Review of: "Neoliberalism, Strong State and Democracy"

Joshy Easaw

Potential competing interests: No potential competing interests to declare.This is an interesting review article.It clarifies some important concepts and issues dealing with libertarianism.The review however is not novel.It also not very

Neoliberalism (international relations)

10.32388/0hhxkg

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Citations (0)

Forecasting inflation gap persistence: Do financial sector professionals differ from nonfinancial sector ones?

International Journal of Finance & Economics (2019)

Huw David Dixon Joshy Easaw Saeed Heravi

Abstract The purpose of the present paper is to investigate forecasted inflation gap persistence using professionals' survey‐based data, differentiating between financial and nonfinancial sectors professionals. We derive the forecasted inflation gap persistence, and using a state‐dependent model, we estimate the nonlinear persistence coefficient of the inflation gap. We distinguish between the pre‐Great Moderation, Great Moderation, and Great Recession periods. Our main results indicate that although the estimates of persistence for gross domestic product inflation largely confirm the results obtained using a linear model, for consumer price index inflation, we find that there is strong evidence for state dependence and time variation. By and large, the results are consistent with the price stability policy pursued in the Great Moderation period and perceived disinflationary pressures during the Great Recession period.

Great Moderation

Persistence (discontinuity)

Moderation

Economic stability

Output gap

10.1002/ijfe.1762

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Citations (3)

Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?

Journal of Macroeconomics (2005)

Joshy Easaw Dean Garratt Saeed Heravi

Consumption

Consumer behaviour

Durable good

Consumer spending

10.1016/j.jmacro.2004.03.001

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Citations (96)

Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates

The B E Journal of Macroeconomics (2010)

Joshy Easaw Roberto Golinelli

Recent research has established that households absorb from professional forecasters as they form their inflation expectations. Professionals forecasts are transmitted, or absorbed, throughout the population slowly but eventually. This provides the microfoundations for sticky information expectations. Using a unique survey-based dataset for the UK that distinguishes between professional and non-professional forecasts and where the former is further categorize by occupations, the present paper attempts to identify the professional forecaster. The paper also considers whether absorption rates take place heterogeneously amongst the absorbing agents. We identify active and passive absorbers amongst the agents and they are distinguished by their respective absorption rates. The present analyses also consider whether these absorption rates are non-linear.

Microfoundations

10.2202/1935-1690.2070

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Citations (13)