Five small glaciers in the Bavarian Alps have been surveyed repeatedly since the late 19th century. This enables the calculation of geodetic glacier mass balances, which are known to be key indicators for climate fluctuations. In this paper, the record is extended by the analysis of additional historical maps and by a new survey of the glacier surfaces in 2009/2010. After the 1960s and 1970s, when positive mass balances could be observed, the glaciers experienced severe mass losses, which is consistent with observations from the vast majority of mountain glaciers worldwide. Although the glaciers show individual behaviour which can be explained by topographic peculiarities, the overall trend is an intensified surface lowering during the past decades. To identify the local causes and triggers, homogenized climate data from stations near the glaciers have been analyzed. All records show an extensive warming in summer, but no increase over the altitudinal gradient. Winter precipitation shows little variation on a decadal time scale and reveals no significant trends over time. An analysis of snow height and winter precipitation measurements at Zugspitze proved that the precipitation measurements are not capable to explain glacier behaviour due to gauge undercatch and redistribution of snow by wind. Correlations between geodetically derived glacier mass balances and mean seasonal meteorological conditions indicate that mass losses are mainly caused by increased summer air temperatures. However, mean seasonal values cannot take into account fluctuations of the temporary snow line, which are crucial for the mass balance of small glaciers and which can only be considered using a daily time-step model.
This paper presents preliminary results of investigation of the observed and projected changes in discharge of the snow- and glacier-nourished rivers of the Balkhash-Alakol basin, Kazakhstan using the long-term homogeneous records and climate projections from an ensemble of climate simulations. Positive trends in discharge were registered at most sites between the 1950s and 2010s. An increase in discharge was observed at all sites between May and October in 2000 – 2013 in comparison with the previous decades which was particularly strong in July-August at the rivers with a high proportion of glacierized area. This positive trend in discharge appears to be driven primarily by an increase in temperature. Results for four climate scenarios with spatial resolution of 25 km are presented. These scenarios were generated using regional climate model PRECIS driven by HadGEM GCM for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5 GCM for A1B scenario. While all climate experiments project increase in temperature, precipitation projections vary between models, seasons and spatially. HBV-ETH model was used to simulate the observed and future discharge for the Ulken and Kishi Almatinka rivers using climate projections from PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 simulation for A1B scenario. The results show that peak flow has already been reached at both rivers and is likely to continue for the next 10-15 years. A small decrease of 7-10% in annual discharge is projected for the Ulken and Kishi Almatinka for the 2025-2044 period increasing thereafter and the projected decline in discharge is more significant in summer.
Diese Masterarbeit beschaftigt sich mit den Erwartungen, welche AbsolventInnen der Studienrichtung Soziologie nach dem Studienabschluss an ihre zukunftige berufliche Tatigkeit haben. Die Berufserwartungen werden aus der aktuellen Perspektive der AbsolventInnen ge-wonnen, welche in Interviews befragt wurden, woraus ein retrospektiver Blick auf ehemalige Berufserwartungen wahrend der Studienzeit entsteht. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, mittels eines qualitativen Forschungszuganges Wissen daruber zu generieren, wie sich SoziologInnen aus heutiger Sicht ihre berufliche Tatigkeit nach dem Studienabschluss vorstellten. Der durchgefuhrte explorative Zugang zum Thema eroffnet nicht nur Wahrnehmungsprozesse bezuglich des Berufseinstieges von Soziologie-AbsolventInnen, sondern auch interessante Ergebnisse hinsichtlich der Selbstwahrnehmung von SoziologInnen am Arbeitsmarkt. Die Auswertung der problemzentrierten Interviews fuhrt zur Bildung einer Typologie welche die unterschiedlichen Typen von SoziologiestudentInnen beschreibt.
