W. Mende

Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities

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Manfred Peschel

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz

Kathleen Wermke

University of Würzburg

Felix Breitenecker

TU Wien

Rita Stellmacher

Freie Universität Berlin

J. Beer

ETH Zurich

Raimund Muscheler

Lund University

Claudia Manfredi

University of Florence

M. Vonmoos

Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

K.‐F. Albrecht

TU Dresden

Manfred Grauer

Philipps University of Marburg

Cooperative Institutions

Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

ETH Zurich

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

University of Bern

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research

University of Würzburg

Paul Scherrer Institute

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

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Dynamic Problems of Evolution

Manfred Peschel W. Mende N. Ahlberendt Melanie Voigt Ulrike Grote

Evolution and growth of natural and man-made processes have impressed human beings from the very beginning. What is evolution? Is it the passage from an initial to a stage? What does higher mean in a world of many objectives? Is higher bound to the existence of monotonous indicators like entropy, or is it gambling within a predetermined combinatoric multifold of possibilities? Questions of this kind arise from the phenomena in our environment, from the spring-off of new species, but also from processes in our man-made technological world. How is the transition of basic innovation to technology and use of the corresponding products by society, what forecast can be made from increasing CO2, in the atmosphere on the impact on climate, from features of seismologic waves on future events etc. That means there is a strong connection between evolution processes and the emphasis of systems analysis as a help for strategic actions. This paper deals with general considerations about possible growth mechanisms as a base for creating valid growth models. But the main goal is to show how the parameters in growth models can be estimated using on one hand a fuzzy approach together with vector optimization and on the other hand a Bayesian approach. It can be seen that both approaches are useful and applicable and we get informations from one approach which the other one cannot give us. We studied already the growth of cracks in materials, processes well described in [10]. Preliminary results are contained in [13]. Research will be continued to identify the superposition of driving forces and of coupled systems in which oscillations can arise because of time delays between their driving-force pulses.

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ECOLOGICAL APPROACH TO SYSTEMS ANALYSIS BASED ON VOLTERRA EQUATIONS

Cybernetics & Systems (1982)

Manfred Peschel W. Mende

Chains of rate-coupled exponential growing systems can explain the occurrence of hyperbolic growth. Ecological systems show structures consisting of chains and cycles with weak coupling between them, For nonlinear and instationary systems described by ordinary differential equations a flexible structure design procedure is introduced, it leads to a unified description by Volterra equations. We get always a lot of equivalent Volterra representations, corresponding equivalence transformations are discussed. Some open scientific problems are formulated. Instead of logarithmic derivative other basic operators can be used, in this case we get similar results compared with the Volterra case.

Logarithmic derivative

Volterra equations

10.1080/01969728208927696

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Citations (1)

Random Phenomena in Nonlinear Systems in Connection with the Volterra Approach

Springer series in synergetics (1984)

K. F. Albrecht В. Н. Четвериков W. Ebeling R. Funke W. Mende

Robustness

10.1007/978-3-642-69591-9_21

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Citations (2)

Adaptive control and growth processes

Springer eBooks (2006)

Manfred Peschel W. Mende Felix Breitenecker P. Kopáček

10.1007/bfb0043191

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Changes of voice parameters and melody patterns during the first year of life in human twins

The Journal of the Acoustical Society of America (1999)

Kathleen Wermke W. Mende Hanno Borschberg Roland Ruppert

The study analyzed changes of cry characteristics of twins using spectrograms, fundamental frequency contours (melody), and several indicators of microvariability of the fundamental frequency (F0) calculated with the aid of a KAY Elemetrics CSL Model 4305. Subjects were 15 identical and 15 fraternal healthy twin pairs, whose spontaneous utterances were recorded every 6 weeks over the first year of life. Developmental changes of F0, jitter, perturbation quotient, degree of voiceless, degree of subharmonic components as well as the evolution of complex melody patterns were analyzed. Correlations of the voice data with anthropometric data (weight, length, head circumference) and obstetrical factors (time of gestation, presentation, birth modus) were calculated to consider influences by growth discordance or different birth histories. As identical twins have a much greater congenital synchronization of development, universals of prespeech evolution are more convincingly expressed in these pairs (lower intrapair differences). A statistically significant higher intrapair concordance in identical twins was found for the mean F0 within the first week of life, for the mean F0 and jitter in the period within 5–8 months of life, and for certain melody patterns. For other parameters, significant intrapair differences between identical and fraternal twins were not found.

Concordance

Fundamental frequency

Dizygotic twins

Spectrogram

10.1121/1.424751

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Citations (6)

Qualitative Analysis of Nonlinear Systems by the Lotka-Volterra Approach

Manfred Peschel W. Mende Manfred Grauer

In this paper, the authors summarize recent results obtained by applying the Lotka-Volterra approach to problems in nonlinear systems analysis. This approach was developed at the Mathematics and Cybernetics Division of the GDR Academy of Sciences (Berlin); various applications have been investigated in collaboration with the System and Decision Sciences Program at IIASA. This paper should also be seen as a contribution to the debate on future directions of research at IIASA, in particular possible research into the evolution of macrosystems.

Systems science

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Solar Variability Traced by Cosmogenic Isotopes

International Astronomical Union Colloquium (1994)

Jürg Beer Stephan T. Baumgartner B. Dittrich‐Hannen Jürg Hauenstein Peter W. Kubik

10 Be has been measured in a 300 m long ice core from Greenland. After a general analysis of the 10 Be data the potential and the limitations of 10Be records in ice to reconstruct solar variability are discussed. Special emphasis is given to periods of low solar activity (Maunder Minimum etc.). The ‘clock problem’ is addressed, also the question whether the Schwabe cycle maintains its phase. Finally the question of what 10Be can tell us about changes of the solar irradiance in the past is explored.

Ice core

Solar variation

10.1017/s0252921100024799

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Citations (61)

An Evolutionary Analysis of World Energy Consumption and World Population

U. Kriegel W. Mende Manfred Grauer

The evolution of large-scale systems is described by a model based on the assumption of hyperbolic growth and saturation processes. It is shown that this Hyper-Logistic Evolution Model (HLEM) successfully describes the development of world population and global primary energy consumption over the past century; the model is also used to provide projections of world population and primary energy consumption up to the year 2100.

Consumption

World population

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8. Some Qualitative Properties of Nonlinear Systems in Lotka-Volterra Representation, Riccati Representation or Replicator Form

De Gruyter eBooks (1986)

Manfred Peschel W. Mende

8. Some Qualitative Properties of Nonlinear Systems in Lotka-Volterra Representation, Riccati Representation or Replicator Form was published in The Predator-Prey Model: Do We Live in a Volterra World? on page 168.

Representation

Replicator equation

Volterra equations

10.1515/9783112621349-009

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[Insurance-medical expert testimony on schizophrenia].

PubMed (1973)

W. Mende

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